Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Again, you're putting too much stock in the codename phase being part of the "hype cycle". The codename phase is far less significant to the marketing and hype than the reveal phase and IDK why you're obsessing over it so much. During the codename phase they're not really giving any concrete information on the console, just saying that some form of new hardware is coming. Which helps to keep people from jumping ship before the end of the generation but doesn't really do anything to sell people on buying the new device. The reveal phase, where we actually know things such as specs, features, price, and launch lineup, that's far more important to generating hype and marketing. And in that area, the Switch is actually an outlier as well. Notice all of the other console reveals were a year or more ahead of the release. The Switch's October reveal was a mere 5 months, by far the shortest yet. That implies that the market position of the incumbent console isn't why the hype cycles are getting shorter, that seems to be more due to factors such as the diminished (and now fully extinguished) relevance of E3 and the desire to keep their cards closer to their chest for longer (possibly to avoid competitors planning around them).

Side note, how do you know that we're less than a year out? And I mean KNOW, as in 100% confirmed fact, not 99% likelihood. We do not, so you shouldn't really be talking in absolutisms such as "no dispute". It doesn't reflect well on you if the unthinkable happens and we are in fact sitting here a year from now and there's still no Switch successor out yet (doubly so if it isn't because of a delay, it's just because Nintendo didn't agree with the rest of the industry that a Switch successor was needed this soon).

It's not about saving holiday sales as much as a smooth transition and a contingency plan. They want the momentum from the Switch to continue on to the Switch 2 instead of pulling the plug on the Switch early, if the Switch is still succeeding then in an emergency situation where the Switch 2 isn't selling like they want they have the Switch to fall back on while they go back to the drawing board. The only thing that should be slowing the Switch down is the success of the Switch 2.

To be fair, Nintendo is sitting on 11 billion in cash and no debts. They are definitely ready for emergency contingencies if the next console has an issue.

Got a little worried about the fate of a Direct soon when I first saw that an Endless Ocean trailer had rolled out, but it was just around 4 minutes of showcasing footage with no voiceover, only featuring the audio from the game. I still wouldn't bank on one for this month anymore, since the rumored Indie World still hasn't materialized, but they still need to explain more about Luminous's gameplay loop, and since Nintendo's been on a roll with demos lately, I imagine they'll want to put one out, especially because it's a revival of a relatively niche IP (one of very few Nintendo IPs to not get anything in Smash, even). I'd at least check it out.

@PikaPhantom imagine if a real direct randomly had 4 minutes of ocean sounds in the middle 😆

I could imagine more Endless Ocean trailers like the 15 million they dribbled out for Peach.

@Bolt_Strike
I think he's just (safely) assuming what pretty much all of us are assuming: The Switch successor is coming out within a year. It just is. Anything longer than next Spring is just bonkers. I mean... come on. Reputable sources, not just leakers, have backed the reporting that the launch was delayed until 2025. We're talking mainstream operations like Bloomberg and CNBC along with the big gaming operations like IGN and Polygon all saying the same thing: There comes a point when you're just plugging your ears willfully if you don't want to admit this thing is coming out in 2025.

@rallydefault I'm not saying it won't come out in 2025 (I think it probably will), but some of these same sources also insisted it was coming in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024...

@Bolt_Strike
My original response that set us on this path was in response to your post where you, correctly, pointed out that the Switch didn't have a full reveal until just over 4 months before release. All I was saying was that while that's technically true it's a bit apples and oranges. The NX announcement was well before then and we haven't even had that for "Switch 2" yet. And I don't remember the exact date but we definitely knew before E3 2016 that BotW was going to be on Switch also. Which hasn't happened for Switch 2 yet either

And sure, you can argue the point that we don't know the date yet so we can't tell from this side of the timeline whether or not the announcement schedule is compressed or not. It could in theory end up being a fairly typical cycle with an announcement imminently for a release in late 2025. It's possible. It's just not very likely. In any case, I think we can be super confident that the Switch 2 reveal is not a parallel of the Switch reveal. The Switch isn't the Wii U and 3DS, the Switch 2 is not NX, the transition won't be the same, the strategy won't be the same. We don't know much but we do know this. With a lot of confidence. Lock this in

The other wrinkle in the crankyness that has unfurled onto this thread is the bit about the reveal of the codename and how much it matters or not. How much a full reveal will impact the sales of the Switch itself. But again, I'm not particularly fussed about any predictions of when the codename comes out. I don't think the reveal of the codename matters. What I'm saying is that I think people are putting WAY too much weight on this idea that Nintendo would be super concerned about hurting Switch sales closing in on 8 years into the console's life with ~140mill units sold and a new console that probably has not just backwards compatibility but a fairly significant library of "cross-gen" titles

People are putting out this idea of teasing out a codename to quiet investors while keeping the masses happily buying Switch consoles deep into 2024. I think people are seriously overestimating how much OG Switch hardware sales matter to Nintendo going forward. What matters is how well the Switch 2 launches. Doubly so if it also plays original Switch games. I can't see them putting the Switch 2 launch in a tighter spot for the sake of holiday Switch sales

@dmcc0
The "people have been saying it's coming every year since ___" bit is a bit of a meme at this point. I'd argue there were only really ever two timelines that have been put out with much weight behind them. The Switch Pro timeline which was for September/October 2021 and ended up morphing somewhat into Switch OLED. Still not clear how much of that was OLED but I think it's fair to say it was mostly wrong

The second one was fairly recently when people were talking late 2024 before it fairly quickly slid to early 2025. Which is more or less where the general consensus is now. It is still early 2024 so we have no idea if this one is on the money or not yet. But at this point it's the best we have and, frankly, there's a lot of smoke this time around

Everything else is just people yammering around on forums and youtube vids. Admittedly a non-trivial amount of it from yours truly. Honestly most of the concrete talk has been around the hardware not the timeline. The hardware is the thing that actually leaked around 2022 and that's been most of what has fuelled a lot of the discussion. When it leaked there was no leak or sources saying dates

I don't know why people think a Switch 2 so late is bonkers. Again, I can only go by Japanese sales because they are the most transparent) but the PS4 was sitting on about 1.3M units prior to the PS5 launching. The Switch is currently on track for above 3M this year. The need for alarm is clearly manufactured by Youtubers hoping they get something new to talk about (easy 'content') and make their channels look shinier (again, easy 'content'). It simply doesn't reflect the state of the forecasts. It's currently number one in Japan, titles as 'niche' as Princess Peach hit number one. But to nurture this narrative that Nintendo desperately need a Switch because it's outstayed it's welcome is bonkers to me. They have a userbase approaching 150M. It's not surprising they have a game a month so far this year (and I've seen people suggest it's a quiet year.)

I dunno. I wouldn't be surprised if there was no delay and this is all part of Nintendo's 10 year life cycle road map (which they were transparent enough to say a couple of years ago!) After all the years of hyping a pro / 2 model and practically self willing an announcement last month...it just sounds like a get out of jail card to me for many of these rumour mills. (And let's face it, there is only one that everyone echoes really lol. - Pyoro is in another league of his own like 3D Mario games.)

And yeah, I get there will be some people quick to say that's just Japan and has the momentum in the West. And I'll agree...but look how businesses are struggling trying to maintain that. It's not like Switch has disappeared lol. And the more AAA titles that release, the more "proven third party titles" we'll get for the next hardware. Sony and Microsoft let the third party AAA tail wag the dog decades ago. Look at how they fought over Activision. Nintendo don't let that happen and it is increasingly infuriating hearing folk discuss how they should (it not only would be disasterous for Nintendo, but it also betrays their Playstation bias.)

@PikaPhantom If Switch 2 releases after March 2025, they could pull a trick where a July 2024 game is announced in May 2024 and then they have the usual general Direct in June 2024 (probably late June like last year) being dedicated to Switch 1.

Could be just coincidence but I find it odd how all the reported changes like Switch 2 delay seemed to suddenly follow the whole Xbox situation where the Xbox community reacting very badly to rumours of Xbox 1st party exclusives releasing on PS5 resulted in Xbox business update getting moved forward.

@skywake I guess those two examples have been the most prominent, but there have certainly been plenty of rumours and speculation since the initial Switch Pro rumours, which I remember Bloomberg in particular, were certain it was coming, and when it didn't it was quickly forgotten or there were rumours it was cancelled or coming the following year etc.

At this point with all the apparent hardware leaks it feels like there's a lot of speculation built-up around an announcement at every 'next' Direct. Admittedly that's probably more down to forums, 'leakers' etc than any mainstream reporting, but it still exists. Nintendo said at the last investor meeting that there would be no new hardware in the financial year, so that cooled it a bit, but then everyone assumed/speculated a Feb24 announcement in the 'usual' Direct slot and late '24 release. When that didn't happen it was quickly reported as being 'delayed' to 2025 - I'm not sure how you delay something that hasn't even been announced yet? I guess the speculation will die down a bit at least until the next investor meeting as the 2025 delay claim seems to have been accepted as fact by the general media at least. If they repeat the "no new hardware this financial year" that will 'confirm' a 2025 release for some and the anticipation for an announcement around Feb 2025 will go through the roof again. My point was more that it isn't just randoms on the internet that are reporting these things as fact, but seemingly 'trusted' non-gaming media as well. They've got history when it comes to getting these things wrong just as much as the leakers and YouTubers do.

@GrailUK Recall that Nintendo stock dropped significantly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange the second the rumour of a 3 month delay hit. So even if Switch is selling well in Japan, their financials will be hurt by more delays. I imagine if they said there wasn't new hardware coming out this fiscal year during the May financial meeting, the stocks would go down pretty massively and Japanese investors would not be happy.

@FishyS The thing folk miss with Nintendo is, they are so cash rich, they don't really have to kowtow to investors as much. If they did, then the Wii U might have had a rethink lol. Remember kids, share prices can go down as well as up. Most Western companies operate in huge amounts of debt, and it's much more key to their operating strategy. Now I'm no Michael Pachter, and I'm not saying that means they would go out of their way to make investors unhappy (that would be a knee jerk reaction if ever) but Nintendo have the freedom to do what they want and take risks, despite the West begging for them to be more predictable like Sony and Microsoft. Remember, they steer on different waters because they can't compete with spec races. Anyone foolish enough to invest on the premise that they can influence them to become more like Sony / Microsoft is throwing their money away. I think most are just hoping they strike gold with a new gameplay idea.

@FishyS @GrailUK I think last year showed there’s easy workarounds like it went from “Where’s new hardware?” to “Wow, a Zelda movie!”.

@Grumblevolcano Indeed. Nintendo are trading as there own seperate entity (like everyone else really, just some are in more direct competition than others.).

What ever happened to that so called investment Nintendo put into Forever Entertainment? Did we ever hear anything from that?

@FragRed Nope, unless the Switch timed exclusivity of the Front Mission remakes has something to do with it. Considering they rarely put out anything that doesn't get tepid reception, I kind of get the feeling that if anything was in the works with Nintendo IP, they weren't satisfied with the quality at all

@FragRed That's a very good question and I wondered that myself the last couple of Directs. I believe not. Half of me hopes nothing came of it lol. But, if this year is going to be a remake year, then they may be someone bringing another ip back.

@PikaPhantom @GrailUK It was such a bizarre thing for Nintendo to make a big noise about, which is the only reason I remember it ever happening. I’m getting the feeling Nintendo has quietly axed whatever it was in development and hopes everyone will forget it ever happened.

@FragRed It's coming up to 3 years since this news. My money would be on a Starfox (snes) remake using the Panzer Dragoon engine. It would take skill not to bring that up to date. (It's a bloody good job I'm not a betting man!) But it's an ip they seem happy to give to other folk to have a punt on. And if Nintendo are closely involved with direction, then who knows.

@GrailUK There's actually evidence Nintendo is working on a new Star Fox being made in-house. Nintendo Switch Sports has some unused internal data referring to Star Fox elements like the Wolfen (this wouldn't be the first time leftovers leaked something like that - Kirby Fighters 2 had some internal data tied to "Kirby3D" if I remember correctly, which tipped us off that the next entry would be 3D). They've also recently applied for brand new trademarks for the series instead of renewals (at the same time as new ones for Princess Peach, incidentally).