Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@GrailUK It's because they're mainly coasting on remakes/remasters and don't have much in the way of big new entries for AAA IPs. People are waiting for games like Prime 4, the next big 3D Mario, the next big DK game, the next big Mario Kart, etc. Not a whiff of any announcements of that caliber officially announced from Nintendo. There is an element of people get sick of talking about the same things over and over, but that's more because it's been almost entirely all rumors and no confirmations. That's why people are burnt out waiting.

@Bolt_Strike 'Coasting' is so dismissive. Metroid Prime looked like loads of love and attention went into it. Same goes for Thousand Year Door. I guess certain channels need to look fresh and up to date to compete (hence going multiplatform lol!) There will be a AAA title this year, but it's not going to be released in summer lol. But whatever it is, I'm already not looking forward to 'why didn't they save it for Switch 2!?' So, Nintendo aren't going to win either way. Remakes is sensible. Because anything new is going to get Youtubers day dreaming what it would be like with ray tracing, or in 4K. And opportunistic emulators will get publicity because they can do it. Armchair analysts will be wondering if we should hold out for a Switch 2 version. Etc etc. It's all too obvious lol. I dunno, I guess I don't make videos (I'm reluctant to call regurgitating the internet content) I just see things a bit more...chill.

@Bolt_Strike
"People are waiting for games like Prime 4, the next big 3D Mario, the next big DK game, the next big Mario Kart, etc."

I think I'm not since I prefer 3rd party games than 1st party Nintendo games.
And I prefer the non popular / underrated games.

@GrailUK I think it’s the side effect of Nintendo announcing some games too early in advance and then all of them except Prime 4 having been released.

• Pikmin 4 - Announced September 2015, released July 2023
• Fire Emblem Three Houses - Announced in January 2017 (as untitled new Fire Emblem), released July 2019
• Metroid Prime 4 - Announced June 2017, release TBA
• Pokemon Sword/Shield - Announced June 2017 (as untitled core Pokemon RPG for Switch), released November 2019
• Yoshi’s Crafted World - Announced June 2017 (as untitled Yoshi game), released March 2019
• Bayonetta 3 - Announced December 2017, released October 2022
• Animal Crossing New Horizons - Announced September 2018 (as untitled new Animal Crossing), released March 2020
• TotK - Announced June 2019 (as sequel to BotW), released May 2023
• Splatoon 3 - Announced February 2021, released September 2022

People get really used to the far out announcements and see the absence of them as a sign of the end. Same thing happened last year before the June Direct about post-TotK lineup and the same is happening with PS5 (a system that’s only 3.5 years old).

@Grumblevolcano True enough i reckon. It's quite normal for a console to lean heavily on third party in it's twilight years. And I guess that would make another Partner Showcase a possibility (with another Nintendo game announced - whatever Namco is working on?) Nintendo being so prolific is a small wonder I think. When do they get time to make anything for their new system lol. Releasing a Windwaker port nearer the holidays could be announced later on in the year (for example)

The problem with remakes and remasters is that it's an experience that these types of hardcore internet fans have already played before. It's not going to be as entertaining the second time around. That's why remakes are often seen as "lesser" releases.

Metroid Prime Remastered, I think that game is overrated actually. It LOOKS improved yes, but it's the same content we had in 2002 with a new coat of paint. No content improvements, in terms of gameplay experience it's practically a 1:1 port and that was highly disappointing (doubly so when the 2D remakes have set a higher standard, the likes of Zero Mission and Samus Returns have improved FAR more than graphics from the original experience and I wanted to see Prime get a similar treatment). Thousand Year Door I'm not as familiar with admittedly but it doesn't really stand out to be as noticeably better.

Overall though, remakes generally won't be as exciting to people that have already played the original. When you know what to expect, it's less fun. Maybe for some of the bolder reimagining types of remakes, like FFVII, Pokemon HGSS/ORS, or the aforementioned Zero Mission/Samus Returns it's a bit more exciting, but in general most of them have come off like (it's not exactly like this from the developer side, but this is how it feels from the consumer side) they just copy/paste the original and turn up a graphics slider and that makes them unexciting.

It's usually revealed by February though. This year we didn't get a full February Direct and again they've just been coasting on smaller games that they announced back in September with no further 1st party games announced (the only thing remotely resembling such an announcement is an outsourced Endless Ocean game, but Endless Ocean is far too niche an IP to get the majority of the Nintendo fanbase excited). In a typical year we don't go this long with them announcing this little, so I'm NOT actually certain there's going to be a AAA title released this year. I suppose it's still possible, but they typically don't wait until June to reveal one anymore, it's usually February now.

Well that's always the dilemma in a console transition and this period of the console life cycle is never fun yeah. But I think the rumored delay is what's really making this especially not fun. As I said we didn't get our typical February Direct this year, which already kind of throws people into a tizzy. But the notion of next gen being imminent made that easier to swallow, especially when everyone thought the announcement could be as early as March. But then that rumored delay, that's just made the situation so much more painful. Since now that means we're likely enduring several months of silence.

As for the Youtuber/content creator side of things, well, they need constant engagement to keep their metrics up and make their money. So they can't just stay silent for 3-6 months like Nintendo is right now, if Nintendo isn't giving them anything to work with they just have to try and make something out of nothing. They don't really have much choice than to make videos freaking out about nothing or pouncing on rumors that might not be very credible. We shouldn't be very surprised about this kind of phenomenon, Youtube's algorithms and monetization operates in a way that encourages this kind of environment.

This too. Nintendo's been announcing some of the AAA games far in advance and they've stopped at this point so that makes people more concerned about the lineup.

You're probably in the minority, yeah. Most of the sales seem to be more with the 1st party than the 3rd party. Some 3rd party games do well enough on the Switch I think, but the lion's share of the revenue seems to be going towards 1st party.

As for me personally, I'm definitely more towards the 1st party. Nintendo just displays a level of creativity and innovation that other developers rarely even come close to, let alone touch. I play a few third party games here and there, but a good 80-90% of what I play is 1st party so certainly for me it feels like there's a whole lot of nothing going on in the industry right now and I am certainly waiting more for the aforementioned types of games.

@Bolt_Strike I suppose I'm bring selfish. I have a new Monkey Ball game to look forward to!

I'll tell you what would make a nice release for this 'quiet year'(tm), Mother 3 localisation / Collection / remake. Wouldn't detract much from next gen hype and would definately sate Nintendo fans. Come on Switch, you can do it!

@Bolt_Strike Turned out I made a mistake about Fire Emblem announcement timing (it was January, not February):

But it was still far in advance.

I do think the key factors for Direct type and timing would be Prime 4 and if Nintendo’s going to mention new hardware at the early May fiscal year meeting. My thinking of April general Direct is an outcome where Prime 4 is Fall/Holiday 2024 for the current Switch. Even if all the other 1st party announcements were ports/remasters/remakes, I think Prime 4 would make it a general Direct.

I mean... I couldn't help but think about how Peach Showtime would have run much better and been even more gorgeous on Switch 2. If all the annoying people hadn't been complaining about how Peach is a kid's game without bothering playing it, they would have been talking about it on Switch 2 instead. 😛

Yes. But they also confirmed its existence in early 2015 and made it clear in early 2016 that the biggest Wii U game (BotW) was going to be cross-gen. Not to mention it was following the Wii U/3DS era meaning Nintendo was in a very different position than they're in now. Not to mention that the "Switch 2" will be architecturally similar so cross-gen will almost surely mean something different than it did for Switch

How that impacts the way this plays out? No idea. But I think it's fair to say the Switch timeline is probably not a timeline they'll follow to the letter here

@skywake Maybe, but even aside from the Switch's release schedule there's other reasons I'm skeptical a full reveal is imminent. Nintendo hasn't even started discussing new hardware (aside from generic PR responses of "we're always working on new hardware" when people ask) or giving us a codename. I think we'd probably be stewing on that for at least a few months before they're ready to give us a full reveal, they don't want to fully lift the lid too early or word will get out to casuals and competitors too soon and they'll struggle to sell their remaining OG Switches and possibly jeopardize the transition. I'm going over possible timelines for the reveal in my head and I'm struggling to pin down exactly how they would do it and whether or not it would make sense to completely repeat the Switch's reveal timeline. But one thing I am confident about is that June feels too soon for them. Maybe they'll do Fall again like the Switch, hell maybe this time they could cut it even closer and not say anything until like, January or something, but I'm more inclined to believe it'll be later than what the rumors say. I could see us getting confirmation that it's in development and a codename at the Earnings Release in May, but that might be all we know about it by the time the calendar turns to July.

@Bolt_Strike
I don't necessarily disagree but I would say I think people seriously overestimate the supposed risk to the current Switch. Or the extent that it would even matter assuming decent cross generational support. I fully expect the hype cycle to be short, it's already fairly short given we're likely already within a year and know nothing. But I'd be very surprised if we don't hear something before August at the latest

And I'm not entirely sure what the point of a codename reveal would be. The reason they did that for Switch was to calm down investors because Wii U was imploding. They don't need to do that for Switch

@skywake I can only go from Japanese sales data because that is the most transparent (and besides, it's a Kyoto company so it's a good metric) but I think Switch will need to sell way less units for a new console to be announced before Christmas. Usually, we see a price drop before an announcement, and this could be a reason why Nintendo are hoping the Japanese bank takes some action later in the year. If the yen is strengthened, then they can sell something cheaper but make the same in real terms? It would leverage such a price drop in their home territory (maybe, I'm no financial expert!) But that said, I'm talking (like most people do to be fair) like it's something they have to do because that's how it's done instead of being able to look at their sales data and act from that and their forecast. I mean, what was it, 12 million this year? Who in their right mind discounts that lol. Usually a console is struggling to sell 300,000 units in a calender year (Japan - not worldwide) before a new console is launched. (Which kinda also pours water on Mr Ryan's 160M PS2s figure.) Whilst the Switch is selling around 60K units a week...it's hard for me to see where they go lol. (I've said it before, I am soo glad I'm not the CEO of Nintendo - I am profoundly underqualified for the job hahaha!)

@skywake Bringing up the next system in some way at the early May meeting would be solely about informing shareholders that new hardware is happening in the current fiscal year. “[insert codename] releases in [insert release window]” would just be one possible way of doing that.

@GrailUK
I'm no economics major but, broadly, a stronger Yen will mean Nintendo will have to pay more for imports but will make more money from exports. I'd imagine for the Switch as it stands that won't really make much of a difference in terms of timing because sales and stock are very stable. But for Switch 2? It's a new platform, it's volatile, timing will make a difference

The period just before a console launch involves buying up a large inventory. The stronger the Yen gets the more expensive that becomes for Nintendo. But during that period they're not selling any of that new console. They're making no money on it. And when they finally do pull the trigger there'll be a rush of hardware sales. Switch sold ~1.4mill units in that first week. What the exchange rate is like around launch? It won't be insignificant to Nintendo

But to get back to my point, how that launch impacts OG Switch sales? I think people are VASTLY overestimating how much that matters. I don't see how it matters that much at all. Switch will keep selling ok even after Switch 2 is revealed and out I suspect. And even if it doesn't it's nowhere near as important and certainly won't be as dramatic a shift for Nintendo's balance sheets as whether or not the Switch 2 does well

They will, and should, do anything to make Switch 2 launch well. That's the only thing that matters

@Grumblevolcano
Yeah, I can definitely see that. It's just not quite as necessary as it was for Switch when they announced "NX" two full years before launch. Which.... is something that doesn't really need to be said because I think we can all agree we're far closer than two years from launch

Nintendo needs to hedge their bets because they don't know exactly how the Switch 2 would be received. We all know that not all of their ideas have been winners, there's a possibility the Switch 2 might fall into that category depending on the concept. The one scenario they have to avoid is that the Switch sales start to decline and the Switch 2 doesn't take off. THAT'S what they're going to be planning the Switch 2 launch around.

So you agree that the hype cycle is shorter, but if it followed this schedule, we'd know more about the console for longer? This is practically a contradiction.

The cycle from full reveal to release is the part that matters the most. Before then it's all purely rumor and speculation and dealing in hypotheticals, I'm sure they do like that but depending on how right or wrong the fans are that's volatile. When they've actually confirmed what the console is, that's when the hype cycle REALLY starts. That's when they're ready to actually market the thing, when they want the information on this console to start spreading to every corner of the earth. If they want a shorter hype cycle (which would make sense if it is a next gen Switch as we expect, as most people would already have a good idea of what the console is like and they just need to focus on marketing the improvements), then the time between full reveal and release needs to be the same or shorter as well.

Most of the fanbase and analysts agree, but we don't know that for certain. Nintendo needs to CONFIRM for their investors whether or not hardware is coming in the next fiscal year or if they're planning on sticking with the Switch for longer than we expect so that their investors can make an informed decision based on fact and not just rumors and speculation. That's the point of a codename reveal. It's for when they need to communicate to investors when they're ready to move on soon but they're not quite ready to show the full concept.

Switch 2 is going to be a success out of the gate. There are already plenty of titles I'm ready to port beg for hahahaha!

Thinking about it some more, there is one part of the reveal cycle that I could see being different from the Switch. I don't think they're going to wait until January for the presentation, that already felt way too late for the Switch (although it ended up not mattering) and in this case the circumstances are different enough that it could hurt them if they repeat it. Back in 2016, no one really had any expectations for the Holiday. Nintendo was pretty much bottoming out, they didn't have much success in hardware sales (they had some with the 3DS but even that was lower than many of their past handhelds), so it was more okay for them to coast just on the Switch's core concept through the Holiday, that already was so refreshing. Now? Not so much. The Switch is more successful, it just hasn't had games lately. Games are what we need most right now. So if they have little for the Holiday as I expect, they can't just sit out the Holiday without at least giving us a glimpse into what games are coming shortly after. At the very least they'll want pre-orders for the Switch 2 and its games, or for at least to convince gamers to save up for the Switch 2 instead of splurging on their competition. So I do think we'll be seeing a Switch 2 presentation similar to the January presentation for the Switch, but this time during the Fall in place of the typical September Direct (not necessarily in September, but I do think we'll be getting this and not getting a full September Direct).

@Bolt_Strike
Again, the hype cycle is already short. At this point in any of Nintendo's previous consoles we had already seen the hardware and had been told some of the key launch games. The Wii was first mentioned in 2004, shown at E3 2005 and had the controller unveiled at TGS in 2005. Wii U was confirmed to exist in early 2011 before being unveiled at E3 2011. 3DS was announced in early 2010 and property revealed at E3 2010. And Switch was confirmed in early 2015 with confirmation of BotW being a launch title in 2016 and a full reveal that October

We are undoubtedly in a tighter full timeline than any of these. We're likely less than a year out and Nintendo hasn't even confirmed it exists. It's shorter. No disputing this

But the idea that it therefore will be compressed to the point where we hear nothing at all this year for the sake of saving holiday Switch sales is quite a leap. Again, even with your ramblings here, we both agree that how the Switch 2 lands is FAR more important than how the Switch tapers out