Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

That particular "rumour" was part of a market survey from someone not associated with Nintendo. It was all but confirmed that it was entirely made up.

Anyways, I think you kinda missed my point. I wasn't talking about the screen resolution so much as what we as gamers demand from portables vs home consoles. A portable they could release something half as powerful as the Wii U with games running at 480p and we'd be pretty happy. For a home console you wouldn't get away with that.

From a practical point of view though there's a reason why game streaming runs in the direction it does. And I'm talking Wii U, NVidia Shield, PS4/Vita and Steam Link. It's always about using a more powerful but hard to access machine to render the image and have it displayed on something that's more convenient. If you were to instead render the image on a portable and display on something that's less convenient. What's the appeal?

I say this as someone who had a SNES and a Super Gameboy as a kid. I remember thinking that playing Gameboy games on the TV was pretty cool. But as cool as it was if I was at the TV it made more sense to play something on the SNES. As for the reverse well, years later I went to the shops and saw SNES games running on the GBA. Now that was amazing.

@skywake haha true I felt the same with my game boy micro. I still have it with metroid fusion practically glued in. Yet some of the ideas, like the excellent duke Nukem game on it, are remembered as awesome.

Don't forget how extra horsepower underneath the tv could compensate for every tech challenge you face though.

As said, these times are different. Vita shouldn't have streamed to tv without ps4 enhancements. That's something Nintendo could easily transform the Wii U into. Or are its specs too low?

@Project_Dolphin

But people were expecting Nintendo to ditch the Wii U basically from the PS4/Xb1 launch. The Wii U has had image problems since the beginning. I didn't mean the announcement of the NX is what caused people to not buy the system, I was using the NX as the example of the system being replaced. Sorry if that was confusing. People expected the Wii U to be replaced and big hit games almost always came with rumors of "Next System Ports" which turned into NX ports once that news broke. It is one of those things, Nintendo was never able to convince consumers they would support the system long term, like the PS4 or XB1, and because of that, Nintendo was able to support the system long term. The NX will have to amaze to do well, how Nintendo goes about amazing people is really up in the air. No game could have "saved" the Wii u by itself. A series of great games being released every month, that probably could have saved the Wii U but Nintendo wasn't able to do that without 3rd Party support.

@DefHalan
Plus, a lot of people expect/hope that the NX is backward compatible to get the Wii U games they didn't pick up, so that's also another thing that played agaisnt the Wii U. Why would somebody pick the game now if they hope they can use them in the next system?
Backward compatibility is almost a curse in that sense.

@Luna_110 Only a curse if you aren't able to actually sell your product. Blessing if either the previous gen ends on a high note or if current gen does well.

EDIT: But I do think that points to Backwards Compatibility being an expected feature for the NX (and possibly other future consoles)

@Project_Dolphin

The Wii wasn't only a success because of its controls. Along with it came titles people found to be full of imagination and very well crafted. I also think the Wii U had some games that will be considered classics after a few more generations. Captain Toad and Splatoon mostly. If Nintendo can recapture the beginning of the Wii era in software, mixed with better marketing, more software from 3rd party, and maybe something we weren't expecting, I think Nintendo has a real chance to do something good. Launching a console is difficult, but supporting that console is even more so.

In my opinion the NX is Nintendo's chance to really face their competition head on. The N64 (from what I remember researching years ago) had several delays and problems. The GameCube had to take on the PS2, which had almost two years head start, and face unexpected competition from Xbox. The Wii went an entirely different direction. The Wii U fell on its face right from the start. This is Nintendo's chance. I really believe this is Nintendo's chance to stay relevant to the industry as a whole, and to prove they deserve to be considered competition. We can look at history and pretend we know what Nintendo is going to do but when an animal is backed into a corner it becomes unpredictable. They could probably survive as a business another "failed" console, but I don't think the market will let them come back as a major contender.

TL;DR: I personally think the NX will do just fine and surprised people. I don't think the past console generations will be able to give us any insight to what the future holds for us.

The problem with this idea is that you're "solving the problem" by selling a home console. That's what extra horsepower under the TV would be. I mean, how pointless would that extra horsepower be if it needed the portable system to function? And so we're back at square one again.

In terms of GFLOPs:
3DS -> 5
Wii -> 12
Vita -> 50
iPhone 6s -> 170
XBox 360 -> 240
Shield Tablet -> 325
Wii U -> 350
XBOne -> 1300
PS4 -> 1800

The Wii U is sitting right at the point where mobile and home console performance intersects. In theory they could release a portable system that's as powerful as the Wii U. I just wouldn't hold my breath. Plus as a home console? Such a product would be pretty underwhelming.

Anyways, if that's what the NX is then I know I for one would still be buying Wii U games after it launches. Nintendo knows what the NX is and doesn't think we will. So I can only assume that they are going to offer something that makes the Wii U obsolete in every aspect.

Well, of course. That's what they want you to think.

Regardless of what NX actually is, Nintendo cannot let their customers think it's a replacement for the 3DS. The 3DS is Nintendo's primary money-making game machine. If people think it's going to be obsolete in a few months, they'd stop buying it and sales will plunge. Google "Osborne effect" for background. Nintendo really wants you to think the NX will replace the Wii U: it's a lost cause anyway, and they'd rather take the hit there than against the 3DS. Everything they've hinted so far — without actually saying anything specific — is meant to make you think the NX will replace the Wii U. Even if that's not true, you cannot say they are lying because they never said anything specific.

This is just business. It's irrelevant what the NX actually is. Nintendo must make people think the 3DS still has a future, or they will take a huge loss.

@cwong15
Except that these were their sales projections in their last financial report:

3DS Hardware: 6.8mill down to 5mill (from -19% to -25%) <- Market saturation
3DS Software: 48mill up to 55mill (from -18% to +14%) <- They expect Pokemon to do well
Wii U hardware: 3.3mill down to 0.8mill (from -2% to -75%) <- serious decline in interest this FY
Wii U Software: 27mill down to 15mill (from +17% to -45%) <- from sales growth (Splatoon ect) to a drop

I think it's pretty obvious what's happening here. Especially when you also take into account the fact that Zelda is now an NX title as well as a Wii U release. In theory I guess it could still be a portable but at this point it's a bit too much of a stretch. It'd have to be a portable that both doesn't take any momentum away from the 3DS but is powerful enough that it can run Zelda.

Nintendo knows their plans. If they're projecting that the 3DS will keep going on as if nothing happened and the Wii U will crash? They know what impact whatever they say before the holiday season will have. And from the looks of it they think after they say what they'll say? Wii U hardware sales will crash.

@skywake Here's a crazy theory in which the NX is a handheld but those estimates are still logical.

The NX is a handheld releasing in March 2017, it will not backwards compatible with DS and 3DS games hence 3DS hardware and software will not be affected given people want Sun/Moon but won't be able to play it on NX. Instead the NX has backwards compatibility with Wii U games and the negative sales growth is due to the lack of new Wii U games being released (only TMX#FE, Color Splash and Zelda) in addition to the reality that backwards compatibility has lost importance over the years (PS4 is best selling home console with no backwards compatibility for PS1, PS2 and PS3). The fact of backwards compatibility with Wii U games renders the Wii U pointless unless you already have one and as a result, there's the serious decline in hardware.

@Grumblevolcano
Not saying that that's not a nice sounding theory but recent history doesn't really agree with it. These are console sales the year immediately after their successor launched. Some of these had successors with BC and some did not. Some had successors that were hits out of the gate and some did not. But even with all that variation the end result is the same. I rounded to the nearest 5% to make it even more obvious:

PS3 Software: -35%
PS3 Hardware: -60%
360 Software: -40%
360 Hardware: -60%
Wii Software: -40%
Wii Hardware: -60%
DS Software: -30% (even with Pokemon Black/White)
DS Hardware: -60%
PSP Software: -50%
PSP Hardware: -40%

Notice a pattern? And just to repeat, these are their projections for the Wii U and 3DS:
3DS Software: +14%
3DS Hardware: -25%
Wii U Software: -45%
Wii U Hardware: -75%

@skywake The -75% is the main reason I don't think the situation is as simple as NX is new home console to replace Wii U. Even the Wii and DS were only -60%

What that would change is the entire ballgame. Instead of being stuck home with your gamepad / whatever's-next-pad, you play zelda anywhere. Walk out the house, still play the same game. It could function on its own without it because it wouldn't need to power a tv in that case which negates the need for the extra power.

@cwong15 has a good perspective I think, in combination with your point about 3ds being in a saturated position. I'm still leaning to the home console space and have to admit nintendo definitely doesn't want us to stop buying 3ds systems... yet - so... perhaps it really is a family of systems? A bigger NX for the home, a more compact one for on the road?

@Grumblevolcano That's just 15 percent. Consider the fact that there's virtually no new games coming to the Wii U this year and you've got your reason why hardware sales are even lower than usual.

@erv
I think you misunderstood what I was saying. What I meant was that in order to "boost" the power when at home you'd need what would effectively be a home console sitting under your TV. At the very least the home console component would need its own GPU. If you're going to do that why require the portable system at all? Why can't this GPU sitting under your TV be a home console in its own right? Which is why I said you'd be basically back at square one.

@Grumblevolcano
So you think it's not replacing the Wii U because they're projecting an even sharper fall in sales than previous platforms have experienced? I'm sure that made more sense when you thought it than when I read it.

edit: I think you may have misread. When I said -75% I didn't mean "75% of the sales" I meant "75% OFF the sales". i.e. for every 100 units they sold last year they're estimating that they'll only sell 25.

@skywake No, I think they're replacing the Wii U with a reverse Wii U so instead of a home console that has a handheld part it being a handheld with a home console part.

@Grumblevolcano
And I think such a device would replace the 3DS and not the Wii U. Which is clearly not what Nintendo thinks is going to happen based on their sales projections.

@skywake It would replace both. I don't think there's enough interest for a Nintendo home console.

@Grumblevolcano
I know I'm speaking for myself here and anecdotes don't mean a thing. But what the NX is will have an impact on sales. Based on myself and people I know? This is what confirmation of the NX being one thing or another would do:

NX is a "reverse Wii U" (aka: portable first) as you guys describe:

• I would buy Zelda on the Wii U and not the NX
• I know people who would buy a Wii U if this is what the NX turns out to be
• The New 3DS wouldn't be at all on my radar and I'd recommend people avoid buying it

NX is a (largely) traditional home console:

• I would buy Zelda on NX
• I'll probably buy myself a New 3DS because I'd still be playing my 3DS well into next year
• I'd make a point of telling friends/family to wait rather than buy a Wii U (I'm already doing this)

@skywake Well the points you make about if NX is a home console would essentially be present also for the time we don't know what the NX is. Say for example Nintendo reveals the NX in December, then 9 out of 12 months would already be gone of potential Wii U sales because everyone is assuming NX is a home console.