Taiwanese Report Suggests Nintendo Expects To Hit 20 Million Switch Sales In Year One

First

The switch can easily hit this target, but only if Nintendo makes enough switches to go around.

I expect it to sell around 10 million this year at least. Minimum. Anything over that is expected.

Too early to say for sure but if they come out of E3 with guns blazing then it's certainly possible. The concept of the Switch coupled with Zelda has sold me and at least 1.5 million other early adopters but games will sell the system long term. If they can keep the momentum going and support it with a decent advertising campaign (Switch adverts are everywhere right now!) then I don't see how they can fail.

Good one! Unless they have some major seller that we don't know about yet then maybe it could reach 10 million but I doubt it as it currently stands. They're not going to get away from that price nor the Switch's shortcomings.

That seems like a pretty high goal to hit. I'm sure they'll get plenty of sales around Christmas though especially with Mario Odyssey coming out. At this point it seems inevitable that it'll do better than the Wii U in terms of lifetime sales.

They can probably hit that target, but it depends on their plans for the rest of the year. Ask again after E3.

I could see 10 mil to 12 mil, 20m seems high but I hope it happens. The more it sells, the more games we get.

@Fbigabig Yup, the stock shortages really need to be taken care of for this to work out.
That, and games of course.

If they nail this E3, i don't think that eclipsing the WiiU several times isn't really a daunting task.

@Fbigabig "First"

If they don't bring a good game (almost completed or ready to release) to E3 then they are going to really shoot themselves in the foot and a lot of people will lose interest.

@Gamer83 "that Nintendo expects to SHIP 20 million Switch systems in year one, with a "conservative estimate" of 10 million SALES in the same period."

I agree, 20 million is extremely unlikely if that's what they're planning to ship. No one wants that kind of stock shortage one year into the system's life.

Too early to say.

Having Splatoon, Zelda, Mario and Mario kart available in the first year should help.

If those four games are all out by the end of this year and of high enough quality, then I do believe it will sell well.

Also the BOTW dlc will put the spotlight on zelda for christmas again, which should translate to nice sales figures.

If the dlc is as good as it can be... a brand new scenario for one of the greatest games ever made, then everyone is in for a quality Christmas.

PS4 and Xbox will only have the usual christmas line up.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE It's possible to not state your opinion as fact.

Nintendo should stick to their projected sales forecast but increase production to meet demand mainly in the US/Japan.

Early sales also indicated that the XboxOne and PS4 will be head to head during their lifetime (according to the "experts"). PS4 has more than doubled XboxOne sales.

If Switch sales slows down dramatically - and that is a possibility, it will make them look rather stupid.

Come to think of it these reports can be "crafted" to generate interest because it clearly tells the public "we are selling out, everybody is buying one". Nice one Nintendo.

@Nintendoforlife Didn't state it as fact, it should be obvious that it's my opinion, as does saying "I doubt". And you can't run or hide from that price, that is a fact. A €330 fact, with no game and numerous hidden costs. Power bank battery pack, Micro SD card, Pro Controller, online fees coming down the line, etc.

Edit: By the time you've paid for these hidden extras and 1 game you're looking at €550+.

Opinion: Unless they have some major seller that we don't know about yet then maybe it could reach 10 million but I doubt it as it currently stands.

Fact: They're not going to get away from that price nor the Switch's shortcomings

@SLIGEACH_EIRE

E3 will make or break this consoles success. If they bring out crap like Mario Party, Mario Music with more junk like 1,2, Switch while Microsoft puts all their cards down with the 10X more powerful Scorpio Nintendo will be in big trouble. Hopefully they will show core gamers what the want. A new Metroid, Kid Icarus, F-Zero, Earthbound, Punchout

There's only one way for Foxconn to make 20 million NS consoles by the end of the year:

Conscript more school students for slave labor.

Get to work, kiddo. Those consoles aren't going to make themselves! You have to satisfy the insatiable desire for more luxury tech products!

At any cost.

If you've spent a significant amount of time with this console you know how good it actually is. It's not without its faults but overall it's a fantastic piece of tech. If Nintendo keeps pushing it and we get some good announcements at E3 I can see 10 million being more than achievable. With those kind of numbers the third parties can't ignore it.

It'll be a great year for Nintendo if they can meet these expectations.

I believe it can surpassing 20 millions, as long :
1. Keep the Switch supplies.
2. Release some Nintendo killer Apps.
3. Color variation for Switch, make it limited edition.
4. Price cut, new bundles with at least 1 game inside (Retail).
5. Keep making commercials about Switch.

@NewAdvent @BigBadJohn You guys might be overlooking just how many people are holding out for games on the Switch. They've yet to release Arms, MK8, Splatoon, Skyrim, Fifa, NBA 2K18, and Mario. And the demand is already extremely highh.

You know, I'm surprised the Switch has started as strong as it did. I know that the successful launch is due to 1) Nintendo actually marketed the damn thing and 2) Breath of the Wild is an incredible system seller (Even with it being on Wii U as well).

Although the PS4 has opened the floodgates with amazing games and announcements one after another in the past couple of years, it still sold incredibly well during its first few years, which were incredibly lack luster in my opinion. Part of that is probably because Microsoft blundered hard with the Xbox One initially, but I think it's mostly because of good advertising on Sony's part. Basically, what I'm saying is... Nintendo needs to continue the strong marketing. If they do, then I can actually see these numbers becoming a reality.

Of course, more amazing games like Breath of the Wild will help too.

@Nintendoforlife No I totally agree with you. In my view I can see the Switch having a snowball effect. More units sold equal more switch out in the wild. More consoles in the wild the more people see it and appreciate it for what it is leading to more units sold. Nintendo have spaced out their releases which is the right thing to do but the biggest complaint I'm hearing is lack of games. Nintendo have the momentum and they just need to capitalise on it. I genuinely didn't think it would take of till Christmas but all I'm seeing is great interest in the little console that could. Exciting times.

Lol is this a joke article

@ennan e3 will help for gaming fans.. but the continued major push on advertising will help even more. The Switch has one thing going for it that WiiU never had and that is it's self advertising when a owner brings theirs in public.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Enjoy your Switch (when you buy one) and stop moaning.

"chatter from Foxconn's factory floor"

The most depressing chatter there is.

@Gorlokk agreed... keep those games coming. Botw is so content filled I am still playing since March 3. Nintendo please give Metroid this same attention. I think its prime time that they reimage their franchises to give them new life.. no gimmicks, just fresh and expansive gameplay.

@BigBadJohn I guess it's just a perk of a launch window, where you are really by yourself. Everyone's eyes are on you, it's just a matter of performing.

In other news, HAPPY BIRTHDAY 3DS!!

There's multiple games I want for the Switch, while nothing on the Wii U attracted me besides XBX (a single game doesn't justify a system buy for me).

They've done something right.

So, Nintendo is planning to manufacture and ship 20 million but only sell 10 million during that time? Yeah, that sounds like a great business strategy. smh

Of course they probably could have sold 5 million NES Mini but it seems like they only made 1 million of those -anybody gave a number? - so maybe they are just trying to balance the cosmic scales of stupidity?

eh, make more, sell more, keep the games a coming, it should all look good after Wii U

@Shigmin Really though, what chatter? They no chatter, or they miss out on daily rice! For that matter, what bathroom break? That time could be spent making consoles for fat slob Americans!

That would be a pretty bold prediction, and I wish Nintendo wouldn't set such lofty expectations. It makes a lot of news. Then, when it doesn't meet those goals, it paints the console as a failure to a certain degree.

I think 10 million would be much more reasonable. I think Super Mario Odyssey will be a big system seller around the holidays. Although if they think 20 million, I hope that means they have some exciting and major announcements at E3.

If Nintendo Switch keeps the momentum it has currently then yes it could easily outsell Wii U in its first year thats a big if that depends on Nintendo and the games and features it brings to the Switch. So far I like the Switch alot more than I liked the Wii U I really like the Switchs tablet.

20 million is just fantasy land, that up there with the best consoles ever and there is no evidence whatsoever to back that up. Certainly this year's line up of games doesn't really kick in until around Christmas. 10-12 million will be a fantastic result and one that Nintendo should be very pleased with and anything above is amazing

@Cosats He's not buying one until Holiday 2018, so you won't get your wish until (at least) then.

I doubt that. Time will tell. If they will release more and more games that are worthy I can see it happening, but as it is now with only a very few games no. And it's expensive. pro controller alone i saw for 120 euro! No way!

@SLIGEACH_EIRE
Agreed on hidden costs.
And yet, our consumer culture (at least in USA) seems to be tricked EVERY TIME by small intro price and then big add-ons. Like when Xbox tried selling systems on payment plans. They were like $15/mo or something, but over time added up to $100 MORE than just buying the system.

Or how everyone is so pumped to get a "free" Iphone with their new cell plan..... except the phone is prorated into the plan, plus the higher charge for more data, plus the extra $10 "smartphone fee"............

lol. it's crazy how people just look at the first number and say "not bad". i wish nintendo hadn't used this tactic (buy your own memory!) but it seems to be working as the hype is real to some extent.

@Nintendoforlife Those are facts. €330 price tag is a fact. No VC eShop is a fact. Weaker than the competition, fact. And plenty more besides.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE The price is a fact, the effect of the price isn't. You don't know if the price will drag them down or not. All you know is you think it's too expensive, and (In your opinion) people won't buy it. Your claim is an educated guess, but like I said until 1/1/18 it isn't fact.

Too early but if they keep up with the high profile quality releases then you never know.

It could potentially hit that mark, especially once they add features and VC games that would really round out the package. That would hopefully help it pick up even more steam.

Digitimes is laughably unreliable.

I can see the Switch shipping 12-13 million Switches during the upcoming fiscal year. If Nintendo is really smart or really lucky, then maybe 16 million. But 20 million is a pipe dream. Not going to happen. No console or portable has ever sold that many units in their first year on the market.

We will know a lot more after April 1st and more so after the financial meeting in mid April. I doubt Nintendo is going to over produce though. If anything they will be more conservative with their approach because of the Wii U sales and the stock they never really got rid of until the end when no one wanted it anymore.

The Switch is designed around "special editions". If they over produce now that takes away from the 100 variations they can easily make over the course of Switch's lifetime.

I think they have built this machine to be upgraded too. I think Switch as a brand will be like DS and 3DS with multuple upgrades, but still 1 generation. We shall see though.

Hm...
From April to December 2017 it takes 9 months.
To surpass 20 millions number, every month must be sold at least 2 millions.

I hope it does. And I hope it addresses all the things I think it needs to address in order for it to feel like it truly earned such a figure.

PS. I still think Nintendo is jumping the gun somewhat on this one, in terms of believing it's already basically got another "Wii" on its hands. But, I'm glad it's at least focused on meeting the current demand and not potentially leaving a bunch of disappointed consumers without a shiny new Switch come the Christmas holidays. It might as well go in thinking it's gonna do gangbusters far beyond the launch window, and maybe that will give it the push and incentive it needs to make it turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Anyone else see an abstract face in that photo?

I don't doubt the sales of the Switch console, I just hope the retention factor of the current owners of the Switch will last between each major game release

This is from Digitimes. They're not reliable in the slightest. Pay no attention to it.

Sure. It is pretty amazing, portable and cheap . If they make enough units they can.

@rjejr Nah, they don't think that. This article directly contradicts the doubling to 16 million units from WSJ. Who are you going to believe more, WSJ or Digitimes?

It's too early to say for sure, but keep in mind that the Switch hasn't been through a holiday period yet. I don't know if it will hit the rumored 20 million by next March, but I believe sales will be high if the system is supported well.

@IceClimbers "WSJ or Digitimes?"

Well my brain automatically thinks "fake news" whenever I see Digitimes so...

I mostly believed the WSJ article, but I never believe anything 100%, I always feel like something is always left out or lost in translation. Like maybe Nintendo has a contract from 6-10 million and then then upped the high end to 16 mil but the low end coudl still be 8-10 mil. Contracts with manufacturers over long term projects like this are always going to have boundaries and wiggle room. Nothing we read is ever 100% accurate, I don't care who or what the source is. Trinnen, Kimishimia, Reggie or a Trump tweet. Varying shades.

@PlywoodStick I know what you mean, but if earning USD$1.36 an hour (as the next article indicates it's the average in Chinese factories) is slavery, then I want to be a slave.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/entry/average-cost-factory-worker_n_1327413

I live in Mexico, and I earn around 2 dollars per hour. Excepting that I'm a programmer working as Android Developer.

Many friends and family work at factories, where they earn less than 0.9 dollars per hour.

I still hear a lot of people having trouble getting hold of the system, so I will believe it.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE lol I see you only come to troll.as of right now till e3 the switches line up is better then ps4 and xbone.let's not forget ps3 and 360 was better than the Wii.but the Wii outsold both lol how's that for facts
???? Lol

Mario sells systems, this thing will fly off the shelves this holiday.

Can we have a unlike option for those users that put first in the first comment slot? Only for the first comment.

Hahahhaahahahahahaa! This is absolutely ridiculous! XD

What? But who's gonna buy all those Switches? I think that number is greatly exaggerated.

@flummerfelt
Lol mario sells systems. Well Bro he didn't do much for wii u and Gamecube sales were rather poor, just saying bro

Maybe with Mario and Pokémon at december, it's a hard number to hit, but Nintendo can pull it, IF they make the right moves.

I think it can do 8-10 million in year 1. If it does more than that, then I'll be very impressed. To catch up with the Wii U in its first year would be kinda embarrassing, I think.

They can easily hit that target. Just anounce the right games in the right way, just like zelda with a bang.
At e3 i want to see a Bang from Nintendo.
Also the Third partys its time to bring their AA titles

@SLIGEACH_EIRE I think the Switch's price is too high (or at least too high for the amount of onboard storage included), and it was C$400 here, but the high demand appears to justify the price from a market standpoint. They're selling through despite the price.

@Guspaz They're selling to the hardcore fans I'm sure. Same thing happened with Wii U before it leveled out.

It seems to me like a lot of people are confusing "shipped" numbers with "sales" numbers. I don't believe the "20 million shipped," but I think "10 million sold" is a reasonable estimation.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE If sales tank once the initial demand is satisfied, they can always drop the price, which was exactly the situation with the 3DS. It sold quite well after the price drop.

Wasn't it just reported that they were doubling production from 8 to 16M for the first year? pretty hard to ship 20M when you're only making 16M... unless i misunderstood something...

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Money well spent.

@Olmectron Yeah, NAFTA didn't exactly help you all out much. Your job here would easily earn you over $30,000/year with benefits for an entry level position. I try to buy fair trade when possible, but it's rare with many imported goods. And it irks me that for all the things like jeans I've had that were made in Mexico, the workers who made them barely saw any returns for their work. 😤

Speaking of which, my county recently had a council vote to bring about a $15/hour minimum wage. Corporate entities and business stooges pulled the county council executive's strings, though, and he shut it down. Those in power want to control others by nature. No envy is deserved for those who are controlled, but solidarity is definitely beneficial.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Oh, NS consoles will sell. Games, on the other hand? Well... I'm going to take a picture of my Best Buy stock soon, that'll give you an idea of how well even BotW sells outside of dedicated game stores in the midst of a console shortfall.

@Bunkerneath E3 is really for the core gaming audience. Once Lego City, MK8DX, Spla2n and Odyssey are out it won't matter.

But.....

We do need to see what future plans are. I predict Odyssey, Zelda Xmas DLC and Xenoblade 2 for E3 with Smash 4.5 due out next March.

I only want to see one thing from E3: what the smelly hell are Retro Studios up to?! If it's new IP, then reveal it. If it's Metroid Prime 4 then even better.

I sure hope so. It's looking good so far. And I still have not bought one yet.

@Anti-Matter

I am so pleased to see that common sense has finally set. You figured out what others are still struggling to comprehend.

Yes, 2M consoles will need to be sold EVERY MONTH to reach that figure.

Even if the year ends March 2018 it is still a remarkable number of consoles to sell.

@Guspaz That's when the bundles will appear.

Amazed a game you can buy on the WiiU is causing this crazy amount of sales.

I've said it many times, every person who had a hand in the WiiU marketing campaign should have been fired.

I think it might, I would guess around 12 million+. I know I have picked one up, as have two co-workers. My wife is also planning on grabbing one later this year. None of us had purchase a 360/ps3, or an x1/ps4, and I doubt we are the only one's in that category.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Not so sure about that. Last Nintendo console I bought was the N64 in High School.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE
Switch are for Nintendo hardcore only ??
Really ?! (Sarcasm)

@Fashegoy
Ah....
You should buy Switch as soon as possible. Me will too.
At the same time, it's time to update your knowledge about Nintendo video games list. Not many people realized about Switch or even Wii U and the predecessors.

This goal will happen if
-There are games that fans will love like botw
-There is enough supply
-More third party joins in
-Nintendo keeps marketing the switch
-Make it great

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Nintendo can't make them fast enough to satisfy demand.

@Hotfusion It seems like while 10 m is the conservative estimate, 20 m is the top end of their expectations, and would likely assume somewhere in the middle is what will be reality.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE maybe you shouldnt just pay attention to us hardcores and talk to all the other people who have bought their fist Nintendo console for 10 to 20 years, or ever.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE
Why is 10mill so outlandish? If you look at the first year sales of the last two generations of consoles 10mill is about the average. PSP, Wii, DS, 3DS and PS4 all went over 10mill. PS3 and XBOne were just under. 360, Wii U and Vita fell well short. Half above 10mill, half under.

Is the Switch, Nintendo's fastest selling console ever, performing above average or bellow? A boost by enthusiasts at launch or otherwise. I think it's hart to see the Switch not hitting 10mill at years end. The only way it could possibly fall short is if the second shipment doesn't move at all. If it sells through the second shipment? There's no way it's going to slow down enough for it to not hit 10mill

I hope they do it! Devs will be begging to make games for Nintendo. Well not begging......just want to make games for Nintendo. Lets go Nintendo rock this one!

@PlywoodStick

@Fashegoy
Hey Bro. It's swing and roundabouts, I bought a Wii U and Wii, my mother and sister bought a Wii each, a co-worker of mine bought a Wii and Wii u. The one thing we all have in common is, we are not buying a switch. So yeah swings and roundabouts mate

LOL.

K sounds good.

Still no sign of support from third-party AAA developers, and a very, very short list of promised first-party offerings that might move sales.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Here I was thinking I was the only one who saw it that way. But everyone tells me I'm just being a pessimist. The best I see sales wise out of it is 20 million over the course of its lifetime, like the Gamecube. Most definitely not in on year.

I haven't heard a single casual I know talk about wanting one, and that was the bulk of the Wii sales from the 7th generation. Core gamers bought 1.5 million the Wii Us in two months alone. And then look what happen. All these newly launched consoles sell like this, I don't see this console selling that much better than Wii U at all. Only thing Nintendo is doing better this time is advertising the damn thing. But it's a "Wii U pro" at best, that still lacks the 3rd party support and hardware it's competitors have.

The 3ds at this point is the better deal. Price!, Plentiful library, 3rd party support, backwards compatibility, battery life. The Switch has Zelda. That's about it.

3ds will continue to sell like hot cakes to casuals and core alike, and the Switch is a Wii U pro. I should screenshot this comment from now. And if I'm wrong I'll eat these words. Nintendo would be happy if I was wrong.

@Anti-Matter I was able to scoop one up last week. LOVE it. Gamestop 45 minutes from my house got five in a day earlier. Got there and they we're selling the 4th one. Needless to say I was, and am, quite pleased.