Nintendo has lowered sales forecasts for Switch hardware sales for the second time in a row with the publication of its Q3 results for FY2024/5.
With a 30.6% year-on-year drop in console sales across the Switch range, the platform holder now forecasts 11 million unit sales for the year ending March 31st 2025. For comparison, that's down 1.5 million on its forecast back in November, which had already been cut from 13.5 million.
Software sales were down 24.4% from last year too, despite several new million-sellers, with forecasts slashed by 10 million units to 150 million by the end of the current financial year. That's still not a bad figure, but numbers are down across the board; while the lucrative holiday season gave a typical sales bump, the downward trend here is undeniable and unsalvageable - that is without an injection of shiny new hard- and software.
So far, so obvious. It's almost like Switch is a very old platform and everyone's waiting for the new hotness.
As a reminder, the original Switch will be entering its ninth year in stores in March 2025, so while there are doubtless some late adopters and budget-conscious gamers to mop up with attractive hardware bundles in the months ahead — and perhaps even some enthusiasts looking to get a mint-in-box system on the shelf before they become scarce — this sales decline is hardly unexpected.
Why would Nintendo fans buy an OG Switch now with the new one waiting in the wings that'll play nearly all the Switch's games anyway?
The reality is that Nintendo is almost at Switch saturation point; everybody who wants one has got one. It's not impossible it could go on to sell another 10 million units and take PS2's best-selling console crown (assuming Sony doesn't move the goalposts again), but it feels like wishful thinking - especially given Switch 2's backward compatibility. Why would Nintendo fans buy an OG Switch now with the new one waiting in the wings that'll play nearly all the Switch's games anyway?
The general gaming conversation late last year centred around Nintendo's Switch 2 announcement plans, as leaks sprung essentially confirming its form and function before the official reveal in January. Conventional wisdom suggested that of course the company wasn't going to announce the successor and neuter holiday sales potential, but with Nintendo you never can tell. Turns out they held their marketing nerve even as the calls became deafening, sensibly hoping to milk Switch for one final holiday season. The results don't call for cork-popping, but from a business and timing perspective, it was the logical move.
As you'd expect, investors will be champing at the bit for Switch 2's release as soon as possible to kickstart the next generation and boost hardware sales and overall numbers back to the stratospheric heights of 2017-2021. "Switch 2 cannot come soon enough," says Dr. Serkan Toto speaking to VGC. The analyst believes Nintendo "overestimated the life that is still left in the Switch" and "expect[s] them to miss even this lowered forecast."
It's not just the analysts and the shareholders desperate for new news, though — we're all jonesing for something fresh. Switch 2's launch date has yet to be shared, although Nintendo has a Direct lined up for 2nd April, and it seems everyone — fans and investors alike — will be hoping for a June or July summer date, rather than October or November. The current console isn't quite on life support but it may as well be, and the Switch 2 'Experiences' (which, more than a PR move, feel like a further two-month delay tactic to bolster production numbers ready for launch) are overkill for a system gamers are so hungry for.
It's almost like Switch is a very old platform and everyone's waiting for the new hotness.
Could Nintendo limp through the summer months, through its Q4 results in three months, without having the Switch 2's imminent launch to dispel shareholder displeasure? It certainly could — the situation isn't financially catastrophic despite those slashed forecasts — but everyone's on edge as it is, and the announced lineup for Switch won't help.
Xenoblade Chronicles X is excellent, but a known quantity. A tentpole release like Pokémon Legends: Z-A will attract attention and, along with Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, is eagerly awaited by a devoted fan base...but they'll both presumably be playable on the new console. And again, everyone who wants to play those games already has a Switch. OG hardware numbers aren't going to perk up in any meaningful way, even if new tie-in SKUs appear.
I don't believe Nintendo cares about beating Sony's ever-moving PS2 record - it won't be distracted by that. Of course, were Switch 1 to break the all-time best-selling console record, Nintendo's marketing department would be delighted, but the Kyoto firm is too sensible to chase a record for the sake of it.
No, all eyes are now focused on a successful launch for Switch 2, and the clock is ticking. Looking at how quiet Nintendo's internal development teams have been over the last couple of years, it suggests the big software guns are being prepped to fire with everything they've got come April. All drama aside, the pressure is on for Nintendo to meet everyone's expectations, and then some.
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I think to get more sales, Nintendo should price cut Switch and maybe even have some sort of Nintendo Selects. This would give more of a reason for people to buy Switch 1 even with Switch 2 coming to the market.
Very excited for it to launch! I still believe S1 will hit the number 1 spot. Nintendo is predicting 11 million and it only needs 10. They seem to usually be right on the money or under estimate their sales. A Lite price cut alone would make it even easier.
Oh no, the mega corporation is making slightly less money.
It may be calm now but I think Nintendo has a lot up its sleeve for this year…it had better.
The sooner Switch 2 launches the better, but it has to be mentioned that while Switch sales are obviously lower due to the system being old and the successor coming it's far from not selling as shown by these very financial results, weekly by the Japanese charts - just look at the latest one which was after the Switch 2 announcement (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2025/01/japanese-charts-donkey-kong-country-returns-hd-continues-its-winning-streak) - etc.!
Only reason I'm paying much attention is one of my kids would like a fresh model as they've been running my Day 1 Switch since 2020. And I'd like Metroid Prime 4 to release before I die.
I don't care about Switch 1 anymore I just care about Switch 2 and getting to April 2nd for that Switch 2 Direct to learn about the games and pre orders
@JohnnyMind that's just Japan 1 country what about the rest of the world
In fact, wouldn't it be fun if the April 2nd Direct was just to announce a Switch Lite OLED, and finish on, "More information on Nintendo Switch 2 will follow at a later date".
Sobering sales? Hardly. Switch will be the largest selling console in video game history when all is said and done.
Nintendo was never going to step on their Christmas sales, so the thing to do would have been to release that ***** Switch 2 trailer on January 2nd to get ahead of the leaks,
announce the date for a Direct in February detailing the games for the new system.
Nintendo have the option to hire me for the small sum of five cinnamon and raison bagels a week.
@KBuckley27 Like I said, just look at these very financial results in the related article: "4.82 million Switch consoles were sold in the three months from 1st October to 31st December 2024", I'd say that's nothing to sneeze at, especially for a system at the end of its eighth year!
I don’t need it to launch soon, but I really wish that the announcements had already started.
It’s been the coldest, darkest January in years in my part of New England, and the new president is making my job stressful and uncertain. I really could’ve used some switch 2 news to get excited about (beyond the hardware stuff that we already knew). April 2 feels like it’s years away
I'm praying for a June/July release as I'm off work and can pour my time into playing the new console
Nothing stopping me from buying the Switch 2 in 5 years when maybe Pikmin 5 releases..
@Manguy888A i feel your pain, i am currently afraid of the future right now
The one gaming event I'm most looking forward to this year is the release of Metroid Prime 4. We know it's coming to Switch 1, so I'm less hyped for new hardware. April's direct might change my mind, but it depends on what new, S2-exclusive games they're going to announce then.
The logical move to me after switch 2 is out, is to price cut the original switch, and do some Nintendo selects for 20 bucks, like Mario Kart, Odyssey and Super Mario Party. It might squeeze some more legs out of the switch, but yeah, its course is nearly done. Whether first or second in lifetime sales, not a bad run for something that came after Nintendo's worst selling console, not counting Virtual boy of course.
@gcunit They said it’s going to focus on Switch 2. Announcing something like that would be met with a ton of confusion from pretty much everybody.
@Darkri74345 those predictions are for sales this financial year (ending 31st March). So it’s the predictions for next financial year that will determine how likely getting to 160m will be.
If they just cut the price already before the Switch 2 comes out it’s more than possible. Without a price cut, I’m less certain.
@Darkri74345 That 11 million is for the year up to the end of March this year. It will be even lower up until March 2026.
Whats missing from this comment section is Rapture and switch being made for the tribulation.
I personally feel like I'm in a holding pattern waiting for this machine.
I don't want to buy anything and then feel the need to double dip on Switch 2. I'd also like some clarity on that caveat to backwards compatibility too.
Dealing with some backlog stuff until then but I just want to know what this machine is capable of and what is coming this year.
Save it for the fall. Give me some time to play the games I own and to save my money.
I want it to be soon, but mostly because I think that would be a smart move by Nintendo. My backlog is endless and will likely double when the Switch 2 releases, but at least then we can all finally get a good night's rest, with the long wait finally over.
I’m doing some contract work that is keeping me swamped until LITERALLY April 1st lol. So I’ve played fewer games the last month than I have in years, and when I finally can reclaim some free time it’s all about backlog lol
I feel like Switch 2 timing was specifically for me, so I’m sorry to everyone else if that’s made things tougher for you 😅
@StewdaMegaManNerd Really? Where did they say that?
I might feel differently if the April Direct shows us something really worth getting excited over, but for now, I don't mind waiting as long as it takes. As for Nintendo, they've always done things at their own pace, and after making money hand over fist for the better part of a decade, they can take as long as they want to release the Switch 2, as long as they make sure it actually sells. I'd much rather see a well-planned console launch than a quick one.
Also just for fun, here is a list of Switch 1 games that are releasing physically in the next two months that I am chomping at the bit for:
That’s not any sort of bonkers line-up but it is certainly sufficient to keep me enthralled until news about new games. Also would be pretty cool to get a general release of the Soul Reaver collection grumble grumble
I don't mind when Switch 2 releases, if more time is needed to create a strong launch lineup then use the extra time. What I don't want to see is a repeat of the early 3DS and Wii U droughts.
I have backlog on Switch and 3DS.... I will be late the S2 party at least until the next upgrade they do, and they always do within a few years.
I am happy for Nintendo and feel excited but it will be hard to drag me and money to the next gen this time.
I personally hope release of S2 is asap. S1 used to be my primary platform but lately find myself playing more on ROG Ally. S1 starting to feel very antiquated and really only use it for Nintendo exclusives, which I’ve already played through with the exception of XCX coming out next month.
@ScalenePowers I have Bakeru on physical pre-order too for Feb the 25th I think. Looking forward to that, Plucky Squire is a possibility too. Still plenty coming out as it stands.
The wait for April will be grueling, even for me. Switch 2’s got a lot to prove itself for someone who mainly plays first party, isn’t interested in third party ports, has enough games to play on Switch 1 and isn’t fussed about graphics. I need to see more of the Mario Kart and see how the new 3D Mario looks in particular, and I hope there’s quite a bit more than just Mario.
I still think Switch 1 can have a few more small surprises left. A price cut would be good to juice sales, but I know Nintendo is usually ambivalent about such a move.
Sales decline right before the launch of a new generation. You don't say!
In other news the sky is blue, except when it's dark or cloudy!
This article is a biiit overdramatic.
I can’t wait for Switch 2. I’m also tempted to dip into an OLED and lite if the prices drop… my OG switch has taken me this far. Might as well see it out with a bang!
Missing what was always a deliberate challenge of a forecast, Switch keeps selling enviably well for a console its age and its downward trend looks not only natural but all too gradual to "salvage", especially since investing in it these days is long confirmed to build you a library for an eventual Gen 10 purchase as well. And like I said before, that library incidentally includes a progressively crazy release calendar this very year, brimming with rich and long playthroughs on offer even prior to any Directs.
Not that any of this gets in the way of "analyst angst" because the very purpose of the latter is to farm clicks/views/likes out of any situation at hand. Dogs bark, the caravan moves on.
Regardless of Switch 2 backwards compatibility, the Switch will be a cheaper product so there will be a market for it even when Switch 2 releases.
I put my expectations low for Switch 2 as I have experienced with the disappointing things from Switch 1 in term of their game performance currently and how did their games sold.
I will wait and see if Switch 2 can solve the problems from Switch 1 case.
I have a friend who's just looking to buy her first Switch right now! I advised her to possibly wait for Switch 2 to release (even if she still wants to get a Switch 1, because it might be cheaper), but she wants one now, especially for introducing her kid to video games. So there's another future sale! 😁
Nintendo should drop the price and have a reduced cost game range to increase sales in last year of Switch life to become the top selling console of all time.
The first footage of the new machine and Mario Kart has me worried too much to be hyped. It feels like this console will be the most modest upgrade ever.
Hopefully it’s all tactics and the Direct will be full of amazing surprises.
“The current console isn't quite on life support but it may as well be…”
Nintendo’s forecast for the Switch 1 this year is 11 million. The Wii U sold 13.5 million in its entire lifespan. I get the appeal of colorful language, but come on. Let’s not shoot Ol’ Yeller before he gets rabies just to get Ol’ Yeller 2.
Getting a mint in-box system is a hilarious waste of money, because without charging the Switch if it's not in use for too long, the battery will eventually degrade, and the thing will become unplayable, even if its docked or using a charger. Also, since the Switch 2 is backward compatible, that lessens the need for a mint in-box Switch. I hope no one is seriously investing in that (unless they know how to change a battery, I guess).
I have a ridiculous amount of games to play on Switch and Xbox. I'm personally doing fine but I know that Nintendo caters to more than just me, so I feel like they did the hardware Switch 2 reveal before the financial report because they knew it would be nothing but doom and gloom if they didn't. Honestly, Switch is still doing fine for a console that's nearly a decade old. But the investing community doesn't want to hear that. It's always "more" from those greedy people.
For the reasons mentioned in the article, it might already be a bit too late… but just imagine if Switch 1 finally got a significant price cut.. could see sales still chugging along for many more years even with the Switch 2 on the market at the same time- depending on that system’s price point and differences.
Nintendo are not exactly well known for price cuts on their hardware but they may do that I guess.
Nintendo need to make sure the Switch 2 is out by June/July - if they leave it much later, they may just find people lose interest.
I can’t see any reason why they would leave any later but then Nintendo often do what nobody expects!
People would still keep buying the Switch over the Switch 2 because it will be notably cheaper (especially if it's discounted) and for the massive library of games. Second or third units could be bought by a household, or even an enthusiast might buy a spare. I actually bought a spare PS4 about 6 months ago for dirt cheap. I still own my original Switch and an OLED, so unlikely I'll buy a spare myself.
I've always thought around September for a Switch 2 launch based on the release schedule of Switch games. I figured the full Switch 2 reveal would be in June, and since it's two months earlier in April, late summer could be the release time, so I answered that. I could see a June release while Oct/Nov is simply too late. Again, look at the game schedule. Only Metroid Prime 4 is hanging, so its release date, if we learn it in the usual mid February Direct, will predict the Switch 2 timing.
Nintendo would also want strong sales momentum through the year, starting with the sales surge on release one and then build to the holiday surges late in the year.
the ps2 was 13 years in the market. og switch can still be sold for a long time still as a cheaper option. I don't know why people don't see this. when ps3 launched in 2006 ps2 had sold 135 million. switch can squeeze a lot more sales easily.
When a new console is announced, sales for the current one usually go down. It’s time the original Switch units get a price cut of at least $50 while they’re still around. Nintendo Selects, anyone?
Don’t really care about the switch 2 launch….just want to know what will be on it?
If there’s no monster hunter game re-make, re master or new in the first year I will stick with my switch 1 for the time being.
Friends response- if the year 1 launch line up doesn’t have the titles I’m after I’ll wait too.
Rumour line up - from what I’ve seen posted the rumoured line up and most of the first 8 month releases seem to be very odd choices and nothing I’m interested in. Unless the April direct proves different.
I mean, you all know consoles don't sell 11 million units in it's final year, right? Why would anyone be feeling antsy. It's still selling solidly.
Who am I kidding, REALEASE SWITCH 2 NOOOW!!!!
@Darkri74345
No you misread, they are predicting THIS fiscal year to sell 11 in total by 31st march 25. There is no forecast for fiscal year 2026
still a lot of questions about switch 2 capabilities how will third party ports run on the new console.. we will have to wait and see..
Sales of OG Switch sure are facing headwinds right now, with suppressed demand due to impending Switch Deux, and with most everyone on the planet facing "inflammation pricing" (as my daughter called it) and less money for discretionary spending. I expect the Switch 2 will launch into choppier waters than its predecessor did.
I personally have enough Switch games on the shelf to last the rest of my life. I don't really need a new console, but I'm still curious to see what's next. So I'll be there for the Switch 2, even if I slow down my spending on it.
I just wanna see Switch hit top selling console to date.
Ill get the Switch 2 whenever the Zelda edition comes out. I have like 500 games to buy in my backlog so I am not even thinking about Switch 2 right now since I don’t really plan on using the BC functionality.
I have never purchased a Switch because I always strongly disliked the controller design and thought it stupid - especially with where the right Joy Con was placed, it looked really uncomfortable. HOWEVER - now that there's even more games on the Switch that I'd actually like to enjoy than were on the Wii, and know that Nintendo consoles seem to have decent lifespans (regarding the console's functionality, not support), I'm actually interested in making the investment. The two things holding me back over the last 2 years were (1) finances, and (2) speculation about the next console. (So no, actually, everyone who'd like one does NOT yet own one, thanks)
I still need more information about the next console, even after the official announcement from last month. What exactly are all the "new features" that'll be added to this next console? If I don't necessarily want or feel comfortable with all of them (i.e. rumors of predicting movement, just not cool with that, even if it is just for gameplay) can I turn them off or will I be forced to deal with them? Will Nintendo be intrusive with updates and/or other system features? (Something I've always loathed about owning an Xbox One is it's reliance on CONSTANTLY being on the internet even for games that don't need it and all the intrusive tracking, it's so dumb!) What exactly are the requirements for backwards compatibility? Will there be any games I'm personally interested in on the new system, or not? (I like single and multiplayer games, and my family and friends prefer lots of local multiplayer with many different players on a SINGLE system, not needing to purchase 3 or 4 different consoles or being limited to online for multiplayer for goodness sake!) Will the upgrade in play quality between the two actually really matter in whether I personally enjoy playing, or is it really not a factor? What's the price difference, and is it worth it to me? These are all questions I find important with this decision, and refuse to make a choice until I have answers.
If I'm comfortable and happy with the Switch 2 information and game lineup/schedule, great! I'll go ahead and get one of those, but not at launch (especially after everything I read with people later having issues with JoyCons, etc. with Switch 1 launch models and Nintendo not really helping). If I'm not happy with the information or game lineup/schedule, I'll happily settle with a Switch 1 and enjoy the games I've been eyeing on there.
At the end of 2023 I would’ve pegged a 2024 Switch 2 release date as a 100% certainty. 8 years is an awfully long run without a spec bump. It would’ve been more tolerable if we got a Switch Pro back in 2021. I love the Switch, but I don’t enjoy playing a new game like Echoes of Wisdom riddled with slowdown.
I have more than enough software for Switch. I really want a little performance increase with the backwards compatibility of Switch 2 (yeah, I know). I’m expecting new games to start at $70 and I’m going to be much more selective with game purchases. But bring it on already. My body is ready.
The Switch Lite is in my opinion the best remaster platform ever (nothing more nothing less) and I will be there day one if Nintendo decides to release a Switch 2 Lite (with proper D-pad and no Joy-cons).
I also agree Nintendo aren’t bothered about the ps2 sales record. If they were I’m sure they’d have cut the price by 100 by now to shift some additional units.
To be honest - the prime reason why I’m impatient is the inevitable draught before a launch. If Nintendo had another round of AAA games for Switch 1 I’d be happy to wait.
Then again, I even have some unplayed / unfinished games still. But you just know the next 3D Mario and Zelda will get you excited.
Y'all forget that one of the largest world GDPs, Russia, has been under economic sanctions for 3 years. If the war ends and those sanctions lift, a backlog of demand will be able to start being fulfilled. And their economy likely won't be in a state to buy a bunch of Switch 2's. That could be 6 million right there.
I don't know a ton about the Chinese market, but censorship means that they might not get things day and date as they're released elsewhere. Maybe their Switch 2 equivalent will be a ways off, and their console consumption will still be playing catch up with their iQue version or whatever.
But still, at the next Direct, announce a price cut. And announce DLC next gen upgrades to certain games but also put them at their typical $40 sale price as selects to allow casuals to catch up quickly.
10 million could be quite doable.
I'm in no rush. I've got plenty still to play on Switch (and a fair bit on 3/DS and Wii/U for that matter). I'm looking forward to seeing what the Switch 2 is capable of, sure, but until then I don't know yet if I'll get one at launch. Depends how long I can withstand the Mario Kart 9 FOMO, I suppose.
It is safe to presume that everyone here will get one. It really depends what their year 1 game lineup is going to look like. For me, it comes down to the games. If it has a killer line up, I will want it sooner than later.
I need it yesterday! I'm more than ready to jump on the Switch 2 just to continue playing my Switch library, much less getting excited for Switch 2 games. I'm playing quite a few different Switch games that would greatly benefit from stable/maximum performance in handheld mode. And every new game in 2025 undoubtedly will need the Switch 2 to perform at a stable resolution/frame rate moving forward.
the answer to more sales is a cheaper price
@Thomystic Nintendo began winding down Russian operations in 2023, as in pulling out of the country, so the chances of Switch 2 releasing there are low.
@gcunit The Nintendo Direct announcement in the Switch 2 reveal trailer literally had “Nintendo Switch 2” under “Nintendo Direct”. Just watch that part of the reveal trailer and you’ll see it.
Switch 2 is Sony's PS2!
I have 3 switches but if they released a Switch Micro, I'd buy it in a jiffy.
@StewdaMegaManNerd Yes, I've seen that video. That doesn't say it's going to focus on Switch 2.
I can't imagine being antsy for this thing, I'll get it because I have to but I'm happy to wait and wait. My backlog is enormous. Not just on Switch, but PC, PS4, Quest 3S and I have a bunch of older systems as well.
Nintendo at its best!
At this stage they are just taking the p*ss in relation to the length of time to launch.
Still can't believe they had a Direct in January to announce another in depth Direct 3 months later!?
There really are some stupid people in this world.
Mario turns 40 this year, I bet they got somethin' up their sleeve. New 3D Mario game alongside Switch 2? Reply hazy, try again later.
I have never bought a console day one, and I think I shall this time.
I think it will be June, but October would be nice.
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