Brokerage firm Credit Suisse has updated its sales forecast for the Nintendo Switch and has upgraded Nintendo stock from "neutral" to "outperform".
Credit Suisse had previously predicted that the Switch would sell 70 million units by 2022 - a very generous claim - but it has now elevated that number to 130 million.
Credit Suisse analyst Keiichi Yoneshima feels that the Switch - despite being both a home console and a handheld - will sell more like a traditional portable games system throughout its lifespan:
As Nintendo’s Switch is a unique game platform for use as either a console or handheld, there was initially some uncertainty over whether its sales cycle would more closely resemble that of a console or handheld. Although the Switch is currently categorized as more of a console, we expect it to sell like a handheld. Many users are in fact using the Switch as a portable according to a Famitsu survey of users. We previously projected a sales peak at about three years after launch (i.e., in FY3/19) on the assumption of a console-like sales cycle. Now that the Switch looks more likely to sell like a handheld, we update our sales forecast to reflect a longer sales cycle. We now expect the Switch to achieve peak sales about five years after launch (i.e., around FY3/20–21) like a typical handheld game device. We also raise our peak-year sales forecast from 25mn to 31mn units.
Credit Suisse also increased its target price for Nintendo shares from JPY40,000 per share to JPY55,000. Nintendo shares have gained 56 percent in value this year.
[source barrons.com]
Comments 99
Not going to lie, I don't see this happening. Those are some optimistic numbers.
Think it will definitely succeed.
I think they're maybe getting a little carried away with those kinds of numbers, but I guess we'll see. It will probably take a few more years before I truly believe the Switch can keep up this kind of momentum over the longer term. I think it will certainly do pretty well though--and definitely much better than the Wii U.
Switch is going to do great, that's for sure... As it already is.
That's cute. Unreasonably optimistic number, but cute.
More realistically, I see it doing well. Not Wii-level, of course, but perhaps it will be Nintendo's second highest-selling home console...
It's possible it'll sell handheld numbers, but even 3DS didn't manage that so I'm not sure why they assume it'll sell better. Only reason I can muster is that it didn't have the massive lull in popularity a few months after launch that 3DS had.
By the end of the 2018 fiscal year it will be on 30 million total sales. In the year afterwards it will sell another 25 million units.
Dunno, I don't see the Switch pulling a PS2 where one just seems to end up in every household.
I won't say its impossible to hit 130 million units sold, but I will say that it's much more likely we'll see numbers between the PS4 and 3DS
I'm going to say this again here, if 70 is neutral and 130 is only outperform then those numbers are both still crazy. Anybody here expect 70 million then alone 130? I say those numbers are 70 million excellent and 130 million outstanding!
Nice to be optimistic I suppose. It'd be a nice bragging tool .
So if '130 million' units is like handheld numbers does that mean the ps2 was a handheld?
Okay, 130 million is a bit of a stretch. I mean, if it happens, terrific, but I find their odds of passing Wii sales to be pretty low, let alone almost catching up to the PS2. 70 mill sounded like an optimistic but not unlikely estimate, but 130 mill would be jaw-dropping.
130m? really... this seems to think the the switch is a another ds, it isn't, its 150$ more expensive. Handhelds like the ds sell because of their cheap price and casual focused games, but now with smartphones we won't see anything like the ds anytime soon. and the only reason the 3ds sold well is because of a more gamer forcused library and pokemon. In my opinion the switch will probably sell 80-90m units, maybe a little more but i don't think it'll go far past 100m
@tamantayoshi
With the Switch being now a handheld and a home console, the analyst clearly assumes that the Switch will sell like a Nintendo home and portable console, combined.
This is where these numbers come from, an assumption that one device will sell to two different types of gamers and generate much more sales as a result.
Some thoughts on that number -
6 years, that's 20m per year - will Nintendo ever find the parts to make that many, or want to, that conservative "no stock on hand" company?
Won't sell that many at $299. Wii U sold for $299 for 4 years, even now discontinued if you can find it it's still $299, so they'll certainly need to pretend it's a console and drop the price several times to hit that number.
Anybody who thinks we'll see an actual 3DS replacement - a 4DS or 3DS 2 or whatever, well Credit Suisse certainly doesn't think so. And neither should you.
Nintnedo would most certainly have to sell a handheld version of Switch. Either a small screen for cheaper, something like the 2DS, or drop the dock like Xbox 1 dropped the Kinect. Something. They'll never get that many sales w/ that $90 dock in the box, lots of people will want 1 for their kids when Pokemon comes out, and some of those kids don't have TVs to hook up a dock.
2022 - that's a long way out in today's tech world. PS5? Xbox Eleven? iGame (Apple console for kids)
That's a really big number. Really big. Even PS4 at 60m and 3DS at 60m combined only equals 120m. So if every PS4 owner and 3DS owner buys one, where do they even get the other 10m from?
I think Switch will succeed, I think they'll be a 5" screen SwitchBoy and a no screen SwitchTV, but even that family of systems has a hard time making it to 100m. Would really like to see their year-by-year flowchart getting to 130.
Those numbers are straight up mental. I'm suprised they were even allowed to publish that to be honest.
lol!... good luck with that. Also, I really have a hard time thinking this hardware will last 4 years.
non of this so called "demand" matters until it breaks the 14million mark. They still selling to the Nintendo Base. And the Switch is already easy to find in Europe.
It's sold 5m in 6 months. So even at that you'd be looking at 50m more by 2022... Not 130m!
Loving the numbers. But also loving the fact that most people on here are rubbishing them like they somehow know more than a Credit Suisse analyst. Let's just be pleased for Nintendo and the awesome Switch people!
@alasdair91
Without Xmas sales and while being sold out! I agree the numbers are eye popping, but the current sales under report demand.
@Samwise7
People love to pretend to be experts on things they've never done or jobs they've never held. It's the human way.
The only platforms to ever reach 130 million were the DS and the PS2. Both of them were selling for 7-8 years or so, and both were before the onset of mobile gaming.
I don't think we're ever going to see another console reach those kinds of numbers again. I think even 100 million is a bold estimate for Switch. Personally I would guess that it will do at least as well as 3DS, which is about to hit 70 million. It's off to a much better start than 3DS and honestly, it's a much better system too. It is more expensive but it's also much more attractive and offers a lot more value, and it has considerably more wiggle room for price drops.
But I suppose with that said, it's not that far of a stretch to assume Switch will outsell the 3DS. And I think 3DS will hit 80 million before it's done and over with. If it's going to push through the rest of this year and holiday season and 2018 as well, it's going to hit 80 million. And if 3DS can hit 80 million I think Switch can definitely do the same... maybe more? If it sold 15 million a year for 6 years it would hit 90 million.
I think they definitely need to keep it on the market longer than they have traditionally sold their home consoles for... The days of refreshing with a new console generation every 5 years are long past. It's way too hard to build up an install base just to promptly trash it and start from scratch in 5 years' time. It's why we see 3DS continuing into 2018, which as of March will be entering its 8th year on the market. But that means they need to retain consumer interest over the long term. It's up to them to continue releasing new and exciting games, new hardware bundles and revisions, and keep the momentum flowing with price drops when it starts to slow down.
No way. 70 million is more likely, if that.
There will be a new one before then, I could see a upgrade every 2 years....tablet style selling.
That's quite an ambitious prediction. I do think we'll see some variations on the console in that time that might help that total in the end
I don't see it reaching 130 in 5 years. Maybe 7 or so. I only say that because I'm fairly sure that Sony will release something by then, which would probably steal the thunder, unfortunately.
Naw
130million? more like 130 BILLION. you heard it here first. 20 per person on the planet. nailed it.
Credit Suisse should upgrade Nintendo again...from "outperform" to "we're drinking the Kool-Aid."
They are basically expecting the Switch to sell at the same pace as the original Nintendo DS, as evident by then saying "We also raise our peak-year sales forecast from 25mn to 31mn units." Only the DS has ever sold more than 30 million units during a single year
If large numbers aren't pulled in when an actual Pokemon game comes around then no. Pokemon is going a big deciding factor. A new Smash Brothers might be another one.
Only Time can tell but, we can just enjoy the smooth (or rough) ride.
Seems pretty delusional.
Put me in the group that thinks 70 mil to 80 mil is more likely. If things play out better than expected, 100 mil is not out of the question but even that is optimistic.
@JaxonH Well that was a rational and level headed argument. I know you're more than capable of those but lately you've been enjoying Switchworld so much I just expected a "Let's go Switch" comment. Or your other alternative "I don't care how many it sells as long as we get good games."
Don't know if you saw my bullet point post above yours before you posted but I think we're pretty much in agreement on this one. Just don't read my comment too closely, I already know you disagree with at least one thing in it, can't have everything.
As much of a fan of the Switch as I am, it is far too early to be making claims like this. It hasn't even been out a year.
Won't happen.
I expect Switch will do well. Better than most of its other home consoles, at least.
Well, we still have the Pokemon RPG, Metroid Prime 4, possible GTA V (Lets face it, even people who brought the game twice for last and current gen would probably dip again for the portableness.) and hopefully a hackton of new games and features.
As well as a Switch XL/i/New/SP/Lite/Super Awesome Sparkle Edition model to get us to buy it again.
To be entirely fair, the Nintendo DS only sold around 15 million in its first year or so on the market. 5 years later, right before the launch of the 3DS, it was sitting at 145 million units sold. It's clear that the DS's first year sales were not indicative of its later success.
Still, 130 million in <6 years is crazy. Their original prediction of 70 million in 6 years is much more realistic, if slightly pessimistic.
I don't care if it sells like a home console or a handheld, if it can hit those numbers I'll be happy.
Good luck, Nintendo.
@Captain_Gonru I actually just came back to post that if Nintendo wants to get anywhere near that number Switch needs to become a functional tablet.
Not right now, but 3 years from now Nintendo can sell the tablet naked, "Naked Switch", to ramp up those numbers. And before all the blind fanbois start jumping on me "you can't sell the Switch by itself you need a dock otherwise it isn't a Switch" let's just say it will be sold as a part, like everyone wanted to be able to buy a 2nd Wii U Gamepad. And it makes sense. You buy a $300 tablet bundle, you drop it and break the screen - you still have 2 functioning $90 Joycon, a $90 dock, a $15 Grip and a $5 HDMI cable, that's $200, so all you need is the $100 tablet, not a new $300 bundle.
Now as is who wants a $100 Switch? But give it Netflix et al, Web browser, Twitter, email, there's a market. It does even need Google Play Store, Amazon Fire tablets sel, without it. I suppose "Switch Tablet" is a better name than naked Switch.
Not this year, not next year, but by 2019 some current Switch will be broken, or scratched up, or dead battery. Or in my case, I'll keep my Switch in the dock using my Pro, my kid can buy a $100 tablet, borrow my Joycon and Grip and he's good to go off to college. Which, not coincidentally, he'll be doing in 3 years.
But it needs to be a functioning tablet. Let people argue "it's not a Switch", but if they can count the $79 2DS as "3DS family", a Switch Tablet can count as "Switch family" sales. And it's not like you can't get a Switch tablet first, then a dock, then joycon, then a grip, then a Pro. PC gamers build their own all the time, nobody says "that's not a PC, you didn't buy it in a bundle".
So maybe. Current Switch configuration is just that, 1 possible way of selling the tablet, we'll see at least 5 before it's all said and done.
I still haven't forgotten our other stuff. I did watch Deadpool today, great flick. Morena Baccarin never looked better, and she always looks great.
130 does seem really high but i've thought for some time that the Switch is actually the true 3DS successor and it's home console functionality just made it easy for Nintendo to keep supporting the far more successful 3DS instead of the Wii U. I think Nintendo will be launching a new Home Console when Sony and XBox do and i think at that point we'll see Switch minis to increase the portability appeal of the system even further.
I would guess around 75 to 80 million units if Nintendo keeps the games and incentives rolling and in this day and age those are astronomical numbers for a gaming system, there are just to many options for gaming it's a way more complex and crowded market these days and I'm sure that's gonna continue.
@rjejr , I would love another 3DS , they could call it the SUPER NINTENDO 3DS .
And Santa Claus plays poker with the Easter Bunny.
Someone's getting a bit giddy there. 80 million would be excellent, in fact 70 would be very good. Somebody at Credit Suisse has been in to the Christmas sherry a bit early I think.
I love the Switch, but this estimate seems too optimistic. 130M is a crazy number of consoles, even for something as easy to understand as the Switch.
Is sounds very optimistic.
But the Switch is also a very exciting product. It's still in a kind of beta state right now, not having all the features and services yet.
If the Switch is getting a browser, and most of the common streaming services, it could actually take on the tablet market in the future. And then the sales numbers really could explode! It's difficult to predict how much it could sell then?
I am very impressed with the Switch OS. It's smooth, fast and very polished. On a level with iOS and Android, and I didn't think Nintendo could pull that off, after how slow and bad the Wii U OS actually was! So there are definitely some opportunities here.
Many things will also depend on what Nintendo is going to do with the 3DS, and their dedicated portable consoles. Will there be a 3DS successor? Or will the Switch be the only Nintendo console in the future?
When franchise's like Pokemon hits the Switch, and if it's the only Nintendo console in the market at that time, it's could boost sales significantly!
I think it is possible, simply because it caters to handheld und home console gamers ar the same time.
That being said, a number like that is of course unlikely no matter what kind of system we are talikng about.
Possible, but unlikely.
I wonder why they are predicting something like that though. That number is so high that it seems impossible to predict at this point, no matter what.
Nah, it'll sell 54,673,285 by that time guaranteed.
2022 is far away sure, but 130 million i think is too optimistic.
But they would certainly outperform expactations with those kinds of numbers.
@impurekind WEll the last two weeks numbers have been slightly down. Its obviously going to continue to sell but these numbers are a bit silly. The stock shortages dont seem to be an issue anymore, not that they ever were here in the U.K.
What i want to see is the next version, more onboard storage and more power, or alternatively a new dock device with extra power. The third party support is coming now but whilst still being fairly relaxed. If they just had a little more power all developers would be jumping on it and then it would be unstoppable.
Well, this guy already sold all of you on the idea that it will be at least a huge success.
130 Mio. Seems tough. Hasn't happened since the DS. And not since the PS2 for homeconsoles. 70 Mio. Would still be a resounding success. Especially when you look at the trajectory Nintendos homeconsoles had, except for the Wii.
@BigYellow No, not one, but three or four
A few things, if the Switch manages to sell like the 3DS (around 70m) it should be considered a huge success.
I'm just glad we are moving away from the ridiculous initial estimates of "dead on arrival"/"Wii U 2.0".
Although the stock situation has eased somewhat over the past few weeks, I fully expect shortages over the holiday period.
@gcunit we have 6. This is why I was always sure the Switch would sell "handheld" numbers rather than "console" numbers.
Ahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!
While Credit Suisse's prediction are outlandish, they are far more reasonable than the early predictions from US analytical firms (Superdata, IHS) suggesting that the Switch would struggle to sell 5 million units worldwide by the end of the year (and thus be a Wii U 2.0).
Seems way too high
Reminds me a bit of Dragon's Den. "In year 1 we forecast £10,000, in year 2 we forecast £5 BILLION!!"
Maybe 130M over the numerous Switch iterations
I'm a Switch fan, as I assume most on here are - good to see we share a similar level of common sense
I love the Switch like no console since my first Game Boy. And I love Nintendo.
I don't see this happening. There are simply too many people who write off Nintendo no matter what, too many people who hate Nintendo no matter what they do because they want every video game system to be the same. PS4, Xbone, and Nintendo Pro all the same machine. And if Nintendo doesn't do that, they will never like it.
Nintendo SWITCH will be the first Console to go Viral - You buy one - your friends buy one - their friends buy one. SWITCH FIT comes out an all the non-gamers buy one. . . . 130million easy. I expect the will be upgraded again next year.
Unfortunately - it does mean more shovel-ware lol
Hmm why not?
It might seem counter-intuitive to us but 130 million is possible. A few thoughts:
1 - Only the DS and the PS2 have ever hit those numbers before... but the video games market today is much bigger than it was then.
2 - Like @JaxonH said - it's a more attractive piece of hardware than the 3DS and it's actually a more attractive piece of hardware than the original DS. It's selling - in it's first and most expensive year - higher than either. The high price also gives room to drop prices before it becomes a 'cheap & cheerful' product.
3 - @BigYellow Nintendo isn't betting that they can sell a Switch into every household (although of course the global population is growing so there will be many more households that can potentially buy one). They're betting that some households will own multiple Switches - which is an easier bet (especially since they've seen that some people buy multiple 3DSs just to 'collect them all')
4 - There are very clear opportunities to iterate on the format. Some of these iterations will allow for the price to be dramatically reduced (Nintendo could probably sell a screenless "Switch Ouya" at less than £100 today if they really wanted). Other iterations might be more powerful keeping the format at the forefront.
5 - The tablet market is huge - bigger than either the dedicated games market in its entirety. There are a few trends that have been seen in that market: a preference for smaller 9-10 inch tablets, use almost exclusively for media consumption (not creation as Steve Jobs originally dreamed), they are disproportionately used to play games and they are replaced on a slow cycle (not a fast cycle like phones).
As @rjejr has noted above the Switch is at its heart a tablet. It could be very easily positioned as such at just the point when people are finding their iPad 2-4 is dying. The iPad they might have bought to embrace the dream of editing films and photographs but ultimately used for browsing the internet, watching YouTube & Netflix and playing games that look nice but were ultimately disappointing.
Even if Nintendo is only partially successful in convincing some people that their next tablet should be a Switch they could still absolutely clean up.
...
Do I expect them to hit 130 million in 5 years? No - it's obviously a huge ask - but I just wouldn't write it off at this stage because if they play their hand correctly then it's certainly possible.
They'd need to have over 30 million systems coming through the pipeline every year for that to happen.
I'm not sure I see it happening, but never say never.
Nintendo's silver linings playbook
@StuTwo don't you mean the tablet market was huge. The market has been on the decline and all the statistics show that.
Shipments have been declining for at least 3 years now.
@kobashi100 Sales of tablets have declined but they are still huge.
We're still talking about 150-200 million tablets sold every year - comfortably more every year than anyone realistically expects the Switch to sell over its lifetime.
Considering the current flow + big upcoming system sellers such as Pokemon, and assuming Nintendo play their cards right both with those reveals AND the timely manufacturing, as well as an appealing price cut down the line... I might expect something on the range of 50m-70m by the end of its lifespan.
130m is frankly ridiculous.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE
Let's be fair, you probably would have reacted the same way if someone had told you half a year after the DS release that it would sell 150 million.
@westman98
Good point. A lot of analysts (and internet armchair analysts) got their Switch predictions completely wrong. It should have been obvious even before launch this wasn't another Wii U.
cute but...I don't even think they can produce that many by 2025 at this rate.
Can they even produce that many? I can't see this happening, although I do think it will sell buckets this Christmas.
@StuTwo Switch Ouya
That's what this guy would call it.
Ouya killed the Wii U. (Thread I started 3 1/2 years ago)
https://www.nintendolife.com/forums/wii-u/amazon_fire_tv_new_wii_u_competition
@Romeo-75 3DS Mini Classic. 8 games for $120. Which I would buy Day 1.
Um... Yea.... Moving on....
@BensonUii "The Switch is already a handheld if they remove the dock from the bundle."
I'm 75-25 on SwitchBoy. Selling the Switch + Joycons, no dock, no HDMI cable, no Grip, for $199 next christmas when Pokemon releases officially makes it a 3DS XL replacement. But it doens't really make it a $129, $99, $79 2DS replacement for kids to play licensed shovelware games, and those involving fashion or Disney.
Now I never saw the 2DS coming. i still only partially believe it's a real thing. New 2DS XL is just a New 3DS XL w/ the 3D removed, they didn't even try w/ that one, but that 2DS non-clamshell tablet, that's toddler ages, LeapFrog LeapPad competition. So I think for those young kids, parents won't want to worry about Joycon that come on and off, they'll want a simple 1 piece design like the GBA. Though anybody under 25 will think it's a Vita design.
So that's why a couple of years from now they need a cheap low end SwitchBoy. Though I think PC makes it a SwitchPocket instead.
Switch. SwitchPocket. SwitchTV. Switch Tablet Replacement. I think they'll need to stick that "Replacement" word on there so people know it's not a full system, just a replacement piece. Only if it actually becomes a tablet though, streaming apps, web browser, social media of some type, email maybe.
I'd really like to see the thinking behind the CS 130mil. You can't just pull that number out of thin air, there has to be a 5 year roadmap behind it. Or not, seeing as how it's absurd.
@Captain_Gonru So this was a thing that happened last night.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/toys-r-us-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy.html
Seems like TRU is owned by a Trump corporation as often as they are in financial trouble. Seems like they'll be fine though, a little Chapter 11 never hurt anyone. Well maybe the little guys.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/09/19/toys-r-us-bankruptcy-store-closures/680135001/
Between Amazon and Walmart I really wouldn't be surprised if they're mostly dead by April.
@rjejr The Ouya was a joke that never had any realistic chance of success...
...but the central concept isn't bad. A durable and simple "micro-console" could find a fairly big audience - especially if it fit into an existing ecosystem (rather than attempting to grow its own like the Ouya) and had the support from a big publisher.
Sony tried it with the PS TV but I think that Nintendo would have a much more successful run at it - the ecosystem is already stronger, it wouldn't be "second best" by definition and the format has been built with the idea that you can play it at home on the TV exclusively if you want in mind from day one.
As for a kids friendly Switch - I can see Switches being ubiquitous on the back of car seats 3-4 years from now like those DVD players with an LCD screen were a few years back. That set up would benefit from the joy cons.
@StuTwo The Ouya is the only system in videogame history to have a worse name than the Wii U. Google Nexus Player didn't sell much in it's short 18 month lifespan either, and Amazon has stopped selling the Amazon Gamer Fire TV bundle.
https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2016/5/24/11762276/google-nexus-player-discontinued
So maybe there just isn't a market for $100 gaming boxes that play the same games everyone can already play on their phones and tablets?
And I don't think Sony actually "tried" w/ PS TV. I think they just sold it in the US b/c they had made it for Japan were it was sold as Vita TV. But the thing was a train wreck. It didn't play many of the better Vita games, and it din't have any TV apps. They should have just called it what it was - "PS4 Remote Play Streamer" That's all it does. I think someday they'll have a Vita 2 that all it will do is stream PS4 games, nothing else, that they'll call "PS4 Stream". May only ever release in Japan.
I think for Switch to be ubiquitous in cars it needs to be cheaper. Those DVD players were about $100. And why bundle a dock for a car device? A $199 Switch w/ 2 Joycon, no dock, HDMi cable or Grip, has to only be a matter of time. Just don't see how they can keep pushing that dock on people once we starting getting 2 or 3 Switch per household. If that sells well enough, well then maybe they dont' need a SwitchPocket. But I think they will anyway, people in Japan will buy them up.
@rjejr That it will become cheaper over time is something that I think we can all take for granted. Just about every successful games console ever has seen its price plummet 2-3 years in.
I think the problem with PS TV/Vita TV was that it clearly wasn't a part of the original plan for the Vita. That's why so many of the better Vita games didn't work. It was also suffering from the perception that Sony had stopped supporting the Vita in favour of the PS4 - that it was a dead ecosystem on launch.
Switch doesn't have those problems - which is why a Switch based micro-console would inherently have more of a chance than the PS TV or the Ouya.
The other aspect is the selection of games that Nintendo puts out are likely to be more appealing to a more casual/much younger audience (which is always likely to be who you target with a sub £100 home micro-console). It would, of course, only make sense at a point when Nintendo has released a selection of their games on a budget label - so later in the Switch lifespan.
That's good to know. It'll obviously not reach those sales as they're expecting too much but on the high end I expect about 80-90 million normally and 110 million if I'm absolutely crazy.
I went into my local Walmart the other day and for the first time in a long time I actually saw some Switches on the shelf. I can only assume that they were selling really well until mid September and now sales have ground to a screeching halt. 😉
@StuTwo "Just about every successful games console ever has seen its price plummet 2-3 years in."
3DS XL launched at $199. 5 years later still $199. They did put a New in front of it, but every 3DS XL, new and old, has ALWAYS been $199. 3DS did drop from $249 to $169 a few months after launch but that was 6 full years ago. 3DS and New 3DS have been $169 ever since. And I'd call them successful. Successful Nitnedo handhelds, just like the Switch is set to be once the 3DS goes away.
So while I agree I think the price the will drop, I'm not so sure it will actually drop, or they'll just drop parts, or who knows, maybe they make a "New Switch" in 2 years and keep it $299? It's Nintendo, nobody knows what they'll do. 2DS dropped every year, $129, $99, $79, New 2DS XL is $149. What the what?!?! And Wii U, well, you did say successful...
"the perception that Sony had stopped supporting the Vita in favour of the PS4"
Well that was less "perception", more Sony saying - "We aren't making Vita games anymore." - a year after Vita launched.
http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2014/05/sony_the_economics_dont_work_for_blockbuster_vita_games
"a sub £100 home micro-console"
Oh yeah, sorry, I got sidetracked by the Ouya reference. I think Nintendo is the one company that could sell a micro-console - which I dislike only slightly less than Ouya. Nvidia Shield, as far as I can tell, played mostly Steam and Android games, but even Nvidia doesn't have Nitneod's name recognition, they have no Mario.
So yes, a Switch TV could and I think should sell, if only for cheap gamers like me who dont' want to play on a handheld and therefore dont' want to pay for a 6" 720p touchscreen, whatever that may cost. With the heart of the switch in a tablet, it would have to be so much cheaper just to stick it in a small box and let that box work w/ a Pro controller. And let external HDD or thumbdrives work like Wii U did. I'm thinking $200 would be an easy price to hit. Make 2 bundles even, Joycon and Grip or Pro, bundle different games based on the controllers included. Not for another 2 years yet, but they should. Might even be $150 by then.
I said it before, almost everyone - game developers, buyers - is perceiving the Switch as a handheld (which again, it actually is). Now credit companies do to.
It's a shame Nintendo gave up on home consoles...
@rjejr The 3DS is a bit like the iPad or the iPhone - the new one is always the same price (so there's always a premium price option) but they kept the older models around at a cheaper price.
However they badge it - it's allowing entry into the ecosystem at a cheaper price over time.
Wii U had no-where else left to go! The design and technology in the Wii U didn't leave much room to cut anything or use cheaper chips. Switch is a bit different - they have a lot of different potential avenues they could explore.
@StuTwo "but they kept the older models around at a cheaper price."
Dont' know where you live, but I didn't see that here in NY. I don't really recall there being any stock of old 3DS XL for a cheaper price after New 3DS XL launched. Maybe for a week or a few days, but nothing anywhere near like PS4 Slim and Pro, or Xbox 1 S and Xbox 1X are sure to be. And we didn't even get the New 3DS here in the US for whatever reason for a long time, no faceplates for us, and the old 3DS went away, all we had was New 3DS XL or 2DS. So my experience w/ Nintneod keeping a "cheaper option" around is very different than yours. It was New 3DS XL or old 2DS, which itself was fairly new.
I actually haven't given any thought to how old and new models of Switch might play out as I've been too busy thinking of ways they can sell the current Switch body is other configurations. And all of those have been side by side $299 current Switch bundle, $199 Switch w/ Joycons, a $149 SwitchPocket uni-body (somebody will refer to it that way if there ever is such a thing) in 2 years, maybe a $199 SwitchTV. Maybe SwitchTV coudl have Sitch 2 inards, but I reallyhaven't gotten that far, the Switch itself is so modular as is not sure how New Switch will play out. Though by holiday 2020 it will probably have to, similar to 3DS. Wii U never changed, nothing to copy there.
@rjejr I'm in the UK - NoE (for all their many flaws) plays things a little differently to NoA.
I have not put my Switch in the dock in over 2 weeks. I have always been a PC gamer and playing games on a TV feels weird to me. The Switch will be 90% a handheld for me always. Once in a blue moon I will dock it to play on TV but that will be just a few times a year.
https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2017/09/nintendo_share_value_hits_9_year_high_as_hopes_build_for_a_breakthrough_in_china
Perhaps Credit Suiss sees huge potential for Nintendo Switcg in China. The optimism makes sense:
1) The Switch is a portable gaming device. In fact, if you detach the JoyCons, the Switch looks like a smartdevice.
2) One of the most popular mobile games in China will soon be available on the Switch. This may potentially signal a key partnership between Nintendo and Tencent.
3) Nintendo's software are almost all family-friendly, so none of their software will be victim to censorship.
The 130 million prediction will always be ridiculously optimistic, but if Nintendo can break the Chinese market, then the chances of the Switch hitting 130 million units sold wont seem quite as outlandish.
@Captain_Gonru Well I hope you aren't one of the things that gets shaken out.
Oh, know how I'm always bugging you about what's new for the holidays, well I actually found 1 on my own that we'll be getting soon, Lego Boost
https://smile.amazon.com/LEGO-Boost-Creative-Toolbox-17101/dp/B06Y6JCTKH/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1505853024&sr=8-1&keywords=lego+boost+robotics+creative+toolbox
You can make a robot cat that plays a robot harmonica. I never thought I'd type that sentence.
I could see this happen. All the right boxes just need to be ticked.
@Captain_Gonru Almost no toy works as well as promised or advertised, but Lego Boost has on its' side that it isn't $350 like 5 year old Lego Mindstorm EV3. And between my 2 kids and I I'm pretty sure we can get $160 out of it. And I feel confident I can get it for $150 w/ a well timed holiday sale purchase.
Good to know your job is good to go.
Amazing 👍
@StuTwo
Thanks for making a reasoned argument for how it could happen. People act like these firms are idiots when many of these firms have tack records of successful predictions or they wouldn't be in business.
It is possible and you hit on most of the keys. Nintendo is known for multiple iterations and I expect Switch to get them in Japan by 2019. A smaller handheld only could replace the 3DS at $199 and I want a micro console so bad and I thought $129 with Pro $149 with dual joycon. Then in 2020 why not Switch 2.0/pro that uses newer Nvidia chipset.
While WiiU was failing I remember an interesting Iwata interview stating N's direction and he said they were merging the dev teams and were interested in going to a model that allowed hardware progression with backward compatibility. Like phones/tablets. Now they have designed and established that platform and can easily have Switch 2.0 run current games carts with patched upgrades (like PS4 pro). We may even get that SwicthVR in its lifespan.
I think they need to shore many things up and hopefully they are thinking this way. Here two cents on how they can get to 100+ mil.
1. Get a proper account model that allow me to download my apps to multiple devices. I think 4 is reasonable as many adhoc games will support 4 player. I will not buy a second Switch until they allow my purchases on it. Everyone else agrees Nintendo.
2. Flesh the damned thing out. Give us a browser and all the requisite apps. I want streamers, readers, email,web, im, all of it and NOW. They have already established Switch is a game machine now show it so much more. The Switch could become the media device and its because it's hybrid. I could download series or movies when docked or sleeping and then instantly move from To the road and back. I want my xfinity app then can use Switch as a setup box and tablet. Please let this happen.
3. Educational and special needs apps. Switch and joycon could actually be used for a lot of rehabilitation applications and why not make it kids edutainment device.
4. All the different form factors mentioned plus a cellular enabled model for true mobile appeal.
5. VC and more VC. I just won't believe GC until I see it. WiiU runs GC natively and they didn't!t do it which is just senseless. Still get the back library of nes-n64 and GB-DS happening now. They also need a 'trade up' program that allows us that bought these games so many times to get them for cheap to free.
The last part is the first part and that is Nintendo makes incredible games and this year they seems to have fully recaptured their mojo.
If they can just widen the Switches appeal to compete against both streaming boxes and tablet users and and then add the best games in the world they could put a Switch in every home and every hand.
@thesilverbrick this aged well.
@Croarus Haha, hasn’t it? You’ll have to forgive me for being less than optimistic. I had just struggled through nearly five rough years of the Wii U. I’m certainly happy to have been proven wrong.
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